U.S. Senate · Iowa · 2026
General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
20 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 52/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-09-30.
Not on the certified ballot (5)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
20 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson Arenholz | $10,217,845 | $5,396,429 | $6,749,491 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jackie Norris | $363,563 | $363,563 | $0 | 2026-03-20 |
| James Carlin | $494,420 | $489,154 | $5,266 | 2026-06-30 |
| James Scholten | $213,415 | $205,271 | $8,144 | 2025-12-31 |
| Joshua Turek | $6,276,527 | $3,914,213 | $2,362,314 | 2026-06-30 |
| Nathan Sage | $1,433,544 | $1,433,488 | $56 | 2026-06-30 |
| Thomas Raymond Laehn | $54,429 | $46,095 | $8,334 | 2026-06-30 |
| Zach P Wahls | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Josh Turek won | 120,287 | 62.7% |
| Zach Wahls | 71,663 | 37.3% |
Republican primary
| Ashley Hinson won | 153,059 | 74.2% |
| Jim Carlin | 53,196 | 25.8% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (15)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-27–2026-05-28 · n=550 · Ashley Hinson (R) 58%, Jim Carlin (R) 19% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=672 · Josh Turek (D) 52%, Zach Wahls (D) 31% · release
- Democratic primary · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-04-21–2026-04-23 · n=600 · Josh Turek (D) 48%, Zach Wahls (D) 28% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=377 · Zach Wahls (D) 46%, Ashley Hinson (R) 44% · release
- Democratic primary · Bedrock Polling · 2026-03-26–2026-03-26 · n=1,022 · Zach Wahls (D) 56%, Josh Turek (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-16 · n=1,200 · Ashley Hinson (R) 47%, Zach Wahls (D) 44% · release
- Democratic primary · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-14 · n=600 · Zach Wahls (D) 34%, Josh Turek (D) 25% · release
- Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-02-18–2026-02-22 · n=605 · Zach Wahls (D) 42%, Josh Turek (D) 24% · release
- Democratic primary · NRSC (partisan) · 2026-02-16–2026-02-18 · n=1,923 · Zach Wahls (D) 30%, Josh Turek (D) 23% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-11 · n=1,108 · Ashley Hinson (R) 44%, Zach Wahls (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 43%, Zach Wahls (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%, Jackie Norris (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%, Josh Turek (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%, Nathan Sage (D) 41% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-06-02–2025-06-03 · n=568 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%, Generic Democrat 43% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 52 Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 ac81b81f2bc4 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.