Who is ahead in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?

Name: U.S. Senate, Iowa, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Josh Turek (D) won the IA Senate race with 50.6% of the vote. Turek leads Arenholz by 0.2 points in our average of verified polls. Verified poll average · 21 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Iowa / U.S. Senate

IA2026

U.S. Senate · Iowa · 2026

General election · 3 on the certified November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Vec- 3 · OpenTenD 51%Att5

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Josh Turek (D) won this race with 50.6% of the vote, 4.2 points ahead.

Josh TurekDemocraticWinner50.6%688,608 votes
Ashley HinsonRepublican46.4%631,274 votes
Thomas LaehnLibertarian3.1%41,829 votes

Margin: 57,334 votes (4.2 points)
Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 11:27 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 14, 9:03 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Iowa

Joshua Turek

50.1%

Ashley Hinson Arenholz

49.9%

Verified poll average · 21 polls · newest poll ended 2026-11-01

Toss-upfrom verified polls

Verified polls Turek leads Arenholz by 0.2 points in our average of verified polls.

21 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-11-01. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 5/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 5 days ago. How it works

On the Iowa ballot, Nov 3, 2026 United States Senator, 3 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Iowa? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (3)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-19, checked 2026-11-13.

Ashley HinsonU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00314RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$14.1M Joshua TurekU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00298DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$24.3M Thomas Raymond LaehnU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00181LibertarianOn the ballotFEC raised$84K

Not on the certified ballot (5)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Jackie NorrisU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00280DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$364K James CarlinU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00249RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$494K James ScholtenU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00264DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$213K Nathan SageU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00256DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.4M Zach P WahlsU.S. Senate - IA · FEC S6IA00272DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Official source: https://sos.iowa.gov/sites/default/files/2026-08/2026%20General%20-%20Candidate%20List%20Database%20-%20All%20Elections_1.pdf

Polling average · 21 verified pollsVerified

Tied

Joshua Turek Democratic: 50.1%
Ashley Hinson Arenholz Republican: 49.9%

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

21 verified polls

Latest verified pollVerified

Turek +1Within margin of error

Joshua Turek Democratic: 48%
Ashley Hinson Arenholz Republican: 47%

Other 0% · Undecided 5%

Cite / verify

Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-IA

Sourcehttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-ia-poll-toplines.html

Retrieved2026-11-14

Polling average Updates as polls arrive

21 verified inputs

50.1% Joshua Turek49.9% Ashley Hinson Arenholz

Josh Turek (D)Ashley Hinson (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Vugol Tensor

How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+0.2. Four times in five the result lands between D+6.9 and R+6.5; nine in ten between D+8.8 and R+8.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 51%.

Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (21 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Ashley Hinson Republican	$14,147,973	$13,903,059	$2,172,989	2026-10-14
Jackie Norris Democratic	$363,563	$363,563	$0	2026-03-20
James Carlin Republican	$494,420	$489,154	$5,266	2026-06-30
James Scholten Democratic	$213,415	$205,271	$8,144	2025-12-31
Joshua Turek Democratic	$24,290,521	$21,217,670	$3,072,851	2026-10-14
Nathan Sage Democratic	$1,433,544	$1,433,535	$9	2026-09-30
Thomas Raymond Laehn Libertarian	$83,667	$74,632	$9,035	2026-10-14
Zach P Wahls Democratic	$0	$0	$0	2026-11-14

Ad spending (FEC)

What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.

Candidate	Campaign's own ads	Outside groups for	Outside groups against
Joshua Turek Democratic	$2.4M+ $31K mail · through 2026-06-30	$43.8M$40.1M ads · 21 groups	$77.6M$68.8M ads · 17 groups
Ashley Hinson Republican	$943K+ $1.3M mail · through 2026-06-30	$18.8M$12.2M ads · 19 groups	$69.6M$66.9M ads · 23 groups
Thomas Raymond Laehn Libertarian	$4,065+ $11K mail · through 2026-10-14	$962K$714K ads · 4 groups	$101K$0 ads · 1 group
Zach P Wahls Democratic	no processed FEC reports yet	$150K$150K ads · 1 group	none reported
James Carlin Republican	$140K+ $31K mail · through 2026-06-30	none reported	none reported
Nathan Sage Democratic	$38K+ $81K mail · through 2026-09-29	none reported	none reported

Biggest outside spenders

Joshua Turek. For: Lower Costs Now $18.4M, VoteVets $9.8M, WinSenate $5.3M. Against: SLF PAC $48.7M, FIGHT ON IOWA $10.1M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $6.3M
Ashley Hinson. For: Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $8M, FIGHT ON IOWA $4.6M, SLF PAC $2.5M. Against: WinSenate $42.5M, VoteVets $9.9M, AB PAC $4.3M
Thomas Raymond Laehn. For: OUR HERITAGE MATTERS $716K, HAWKEYE LIBERTY PAC $227K, PRINCIPLED PATRIOTS PAC $19K. Against: Reproductive Freedom For All Freedom Fund $101K
Zach P Wahls. For: IOWA ACTION $150K

Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-05, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-10-14); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.

Results

Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.

general election · state results feed, unofficial

Josh Turek won	688,608	50.6%
Josh Turek won	688,302	50.5%
Ashley Hinson	631,274	46.4%
Ashley Hinson	631,232	46.4%
Thomas Laehn	42,121	3.1%
Thomas Laehn	41,829	3.1%

Josh Turek leads by 57,334 votes. 97% of reporting units counted.

Democratic primary

Josh Turek won	120,287	62.7%
Zach Wahls	71,663	37.3%

Republican primary

Ashley Hinson won	153,059	74.2%
Jim Carlin	53,196	25.8%

Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser state-feed-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. Senate
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (15)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.

Republican primary · JMC Analytics (partisan) · 2026-05-27–2026-05-28 · n=550 · Ashley Hinson (R) 58%,Jim Carlin (R) 19% · release
Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=672 · Josh Turek (D) 52%,Zach Wahls (D) 31% · release
Democratic primary · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-04-21–2026-04-23 · n=600 · Josh Turek (D) 48%,Zach Wahls (D) 28% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=377 · Zach Wahls (D) 46%,Ashley Hinson (R) 44% · pollster's site · release
Democratic primary · Bedrock Polling · 2026-03-26–2026-03-26 · n=1,022 · Zach Wahls (D) 56%,Josh Turek (D) 38% · release
Hypothetical matchup · GQR (partisan) · 2026-03-10–2026-03-16 · n=1,200 · Ashley Hinson (R) 47%,Zach Wahls (D) 44% · release
Democratic primary · FM3 Research (partisan) · 2026-03-11–2026-03-14 · n=600 · Zach Wahls (D) 34%,Josh Turek (D) 25% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-02-18–2026-02-22 · n=605 · Zach Wahls (D) 42%,Josh Turek (D) 24% · release
Democratic primary · NRSC (partisan) · 2026-02-16–2026-02-18 · n=1,923 · Zach Wahls (D) 30%,Josh Turek (D) 23% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-01-08–2026-01-11 · n=1,108 · Ashley Hinson (R) 44%,Zach Wahls (D) 41% · pollster's site · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 43%,Zach Wahls (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%,Jackie Norris (D) 42% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%,Josh Turek (D) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-08-18–2025-08-19 · n=572 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%,Nathan Sage (D) 41% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-06-02–2025-06-03 · n=568 · Joni Ernst (R) 45%,Generic Democrat 43% · release

In the news

Here are some of the House seats that Democrats didn't expect to win this yearABC News · Nov 10
GOP eyes Senate comeback after Democratic bloodbath, but another political nightmare could awaitFox News · Nov 7
Democrats flip House as Republicans confront ‘blue tsunami’Roll Call · Nov 3
Democrat drops out of race due to health concerns and still wins; opponent says, 'We deserve to know more'Fox News · Nov 5
All the House districts that flipped in the midterm electionsCBS News · Nov 4
Iowa Democrat Eric Armstrong wins state House race despite dropping out in SeptemberNew York Post · Nov 5
Here's what the U.S. is voting on today for the 2026 midterm electionsCBS News · Nov 3
Fox News Voter Poll: How Democrats took control of the SenateFox News · Nov 4
Josh Turek pitches "generational change" in tight Iowa Senate raceCBS News · Nov 2
Democrats flip House and Senate in massive blue waveDeseret News · Nov 4

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 5 Vugol Vector · Open

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

5OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile0th

7-day momentum16 / 100

Source breadth0% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, pres, money) · missing: prior, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-09 (5 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5589eeab97ab · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.