FL2026
Governor · Florida · 2026
General election · 8 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
20 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
News attention 60/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (1)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (3)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377325659
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
20 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Byron Donalds (R)David Jolly (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| David Jolly won | 761,558 | 61.0% |
| Dayna Marie Foster | 189,205 | 15.1% |
| Dotie Joseph | 119,825 | 9.6% |
| Evelyn Castillo-Bach | 96,581 | 7.7% |
| Thomas Eloy Fernandez | 47,261 | 3.8% |
| Stephann Norman | 34,922 | 2.8% |
Republican primary
| Byron Donalds won | 810,552 | 47.8% |
| Jay Collins | 426,696 | 25.2% |
| James Fishback | 177,660 | 10.5% |
| Paul Renner | 144,950 | 8.5% |
| Bobby Williams | 69,026 | 4.1% |
| Rachel Rodriguez | 27,602 | 1.6% |
| Jim Holcomb | 13,172 | 0.8% |
| James Walker Shaw | 7,878 | 0.5% |
| Arthur Joseph McCaffrey | 7,039 | 0.4% |
| Caneste Succe | 6,266 | 0.4% |
| Daniel Nokovich | 5,188 | 0.3% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · David J Wolfson · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=988 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%, Jay Collins 30%, James Fishback 10%, Paul Renner 6% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-07-27–2026-07-29 · n=635 · Byron Donalds (R) 50%, Jay Collins 16%, James Fishback 12%, Paul Renner 4% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=1,027 · Jay Collins (R) 44%, David Jolly (D) 39% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=341 · David Jolly (D) 47%, Dayna Marie Foster 4% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=532 · Byron Donalds (R) 49%, Jay Collins 18%, Paul Renner 8%, James Fishback 4% · release
- Republican primary · Listener Group/ Political Matrix News (partisan) · 2026-07-21–2026-07-23 · n=1,020 · Byron Donalds (R) 32%, Paul Renner 19%, James Fishback 13%, Jay Collins 2% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-07-14–2026-07-16 · n=400 · Byron Donalds (R) 53%, Jay Collins 10%, James Fishback 9%, Paul Renner 4% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-07-12–2026-07-13 · n=500 · Byron Donalds (R) 43%, James Fishback 12%, Jay Collins 11%, Paul Renner 2% · release
- Republican primary · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%, Jay Collins 9%, James Fishback 8%, Paul Renner 4% · release
- Republican primary · David J Wolfson · 2026-07-02–2026-07-06 · n=934 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%, Jay Collins 20%, James Fishback 10%, Paul Renner 2% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-03–2026-06-07 · n=386 · Byron Donalds (R) 54%, James Fishback 8%, Jay Collins 5%, Paul Renner 2% · release
- Republican primary · Listener Group/ Political Matrix News (partisan) · 2026-05-31–2026-06-03 · n=973 · Byron Donalds (R) 29%, Paul Renner 14%, Jay Collins 11%, James Fishback 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-16 · n=1,593 · Jerry Demings (D) 46%, Byron Donalds (R) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Cherry Communications (partisan) · 2026-05-01–2026-05-09 · n=604 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%, Jerry Demings (D) 39% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-04-26–2026-04-30 · n=420 · Byron Donalds (R) 54%, James Fishback 9%, Jay Collins 7%, Paul Renner 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Stetson University · 2026-03-15–2026-04-13 · n=848 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%, Jerry Demings (D) 42% · release
- Republican primary · Stetson University · 2026-03-25–2026-04-13 · n=373 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%, Paul Renner 7%, Jay Collins 6%, James Fishback 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=406 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%, Jerry Demings (D) 44% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=465 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%, Jay Collins 4%, James Fishback 4%, Paul Renner 3% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=465 · Byron Donalds (R) 44%, Casey DeSantis 7% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · Casey DeSantis (R) 41%, Jerry Demings (D) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%, Jerry Demings (D) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · David Jolly (D) 40%, Casey DeSantis (R) 39% · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=362 · David Jolly (D) 21%, Jerry Demings 10%, Dayna Marie Foster 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-02-21–2026-03-02 · n=786 · Byron Donalds (R) 43%, Jerry Demings (D) 36% · release
- Republican primary · The American Promise · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=800 · Byron Donalds (R) 44%, James Fishback 5%, Jay Collins 4%, Paul Renner 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-02-20–2026-02-22 · n=471 · David Jolly (D) 31%, Jerry Demings 23% · release
- Republican primary · University of North Florida · 2026-02-16–2026-02-20 · n=657 · Byron Donalds (R) 31%, James Fishback 6%, Jay Collins 4%, Paul Renner 1% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-02-13–2026-02-16 · n=401 · Byron Donalds (R) 33%, Jay Collins 15%, Paul Renner 9%, James Fishback 3% · release
- Republican primary · Patriot Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-19–2026-01-29 · n=827 · Byron Donalds (R) 37%, James Fishback 23% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-01-08–2026-01-13 · n=400 · Byron Donalds (R) 37%, Jay Collins 7%, Paul Renner 4%, James Fishback 3% · release
- Democratic primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-01-08–2026-01-13 · n=400 · David Jolly (D) 23%, Jerry Demings 19% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-01-04–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%, Jay Collins 6%, James Fishback 4%, Paul Renner 3% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2025-12-07–2025-12-11 · n=700 · Byron Donalds (R) 40%, Jay Collins 13% · release
- Republican primary · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2025-12-08–2025-12-09 · n=800 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%, Jay Collins 9%, James Fishback 2%, Paul Renner 1% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-02–2025-12-03 · n=616 · Jerry Demings 22%, David Jolly (D) 22% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-11–2025-11-13 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%, Paul Renner 3%, James Fishback 1%, Jay Collins 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%, Jerry Demings (D) 33% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Casey DeSantis (R) 47%, Jerry Demings (D) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Casey DeSantis (R) 47%, David Jolly (D) 34% · release
In the news
- As Republicans break with Trump, one gets a brushback: From the Politics Desk
- Trump slams reporting on removal of his endorsements from GOP candidate's website
- Read full episode transcripts of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" from 2026
- Trump is moving fast and breaking things. He could pay in November.
- Republicans dump cash into red states as they try to hold the line against Democrats in the midterms
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 60 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
60OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile100th
7-day momentum1 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, pulse) · missing: incumbent, money, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-28 (2 days ago)
Vector component signals · estimated margin R +7.2Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +13.1, national swing D +8.4)R +4.7Last result for this seat (2022 R +19.4, national swing D +8.5)R +10.9Attention shareR +1.3National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 71885be34dbf · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.