Donalds +4Within margin of error
- David Jolly Democratic: 45%
- Byron Donalds Republican: 49%
Other 2% · Undecided 4%
FL2026
Governor · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledByron Donalds (R) won this race with 50.0% of the vote, 1.3 points ahead.
- Byron DonaldsRepublicanWinner50.0%4,135,701 votes
- David JollyDemocratic48.7%4,029,461 votes
- Scott Eckhard JewettLibertarian0.5%37,939 votes
- Frank J. RussoIndependent0.3%23,240 votes
- Charles BurkettIndependent0.2%15,259 votes
- Dean Ocean AbramsIndependent0.1%12,564 votes
- Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" DattoIndependent0.1%8,331 votes
- Moliere "Moe" DimancheIndependent0.1%7,606 votes
- Margin
- 106,240 votes (1.3 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 9:24 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 6:05 AM ET
- Source
- Wikipedia · official results page
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageGovernor · Florida
David Jolly
48%
Byron Donalds
52%
Verified poll average · 13 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-29
Verified polls Donalds leads Jolly by 3.1 points in our average of verified polls.
13 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-29. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 1/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,554 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-14 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Donalds +3.1
- David Jolly Democratic: 48.4%
- Byron Donalds Republican: 51.6%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-FL-GOV
Sourcehttps://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-survey-donalds-49-jolly-45-moody-49-nixon-43/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
51.6% Byron Donalds48.4% David Jolly
Byron Donalds (R)David Jolly (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+3.1. Four times in five the result lands between D+3.6 and R+9.8; nine in ten between D+5.5 and R+11.7. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 27%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (13 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Byron Donalds won | 4,135,701 | 50.0% |
| Byron Donalds won | 4,135,701 | 50.0% |
| David Jolly | 4,029,461 | 48.7% |
| David Jolly | 4,029,461 | 48.7% |
| Scott Eckhard Jewett | 37,939 | 0.5% |
| Scott Eckhard Jewett | 37,939 | 0.5% |
| Frank J. Russo | 23,240 | 0.3% |
| Frank J. Russo | 23,240 | 0.3% |
| Charles Burkett | 15,259 | 0.2% |
| Charles Burkett | 15,259 | 0.2% |
| Dean Ocean Abrams | 12,564 | 0.1% |
| Dean Ocean Abrams | 12,564 | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto | 8,331 | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto | 8,331 | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Peter Datto | 8,308 | - |
| Moliere Dimanche | 7,606 | 0.1% |
| Moliere "Moe" Dimanche | 7,606 | 0.1% |
Byron Donalds leads by 106,240 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| David Jolly won | 761,558 | 61.0% |
| Dayna Marie Foster | 189,205 | 15.1% |
| Dotie Joseph | 119,825 | 9.6% |
| Evelyn Castillo-Bach | 96,581 | 7.7% |
| Thomas Eloy Fernandez | 47,261 | 3.8% |
| Stephann Norman | 34,922 | 2.8% |
Republican primary
| Byron Donalds won | 810,552 | 47.8% |
| Jay Collins | 426,696 | 25.2% |
| James Fishback | 177,660 | 10.5% |
| Paul Renner | 144,950 | 8.5% |
| Bobby Williams | 69,026 | 4.1% |
| Rachel Rodriguez | 27,602 | 1.6% |
| Jim Holcomb | 13,172 | 0.8% |
| James Walker Shaw | 7,878 | 0.5% |
| Arthur Joseph McCaffrey | 7,039 | 0.4% |
| Caneste Succe | 6,266 | 0.4% |
| Daniel Nokovich | 5,188 | 0.3% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · David J Wolfson · 2026-07-28–2026-07-29 · n=988 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%,Jay Collins 30%,James Fishback 10%,Paul Renner 6% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2026-07-27–2026-07-29 · n=635 · Byron Donalds (R) 50%,Jay Collins 16%,James Fishback 12%,Paul Renner 4% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=1,027 · Jay Collins (R) 44%,David Jolly (D) 39% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=341 · David Jolly (D) 47%,Dayna Marie Foster 4% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-07-20–2026-07-26 · n=532 · Byron Donalds (R) 49%,Jay Collins 18%,Paul Renner 8%,James Fishback 4% · release
- Republican primary · Listener Group/ Political Matrix News (partisan) · 2026-07-21–2026-07-23 · n=1,020 · Byron Donalds (R) 32%,Paul Renner 19%,James Fishback 13%,Jay Collins 2% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-07-14–2026-07-16 · n=400 · Byron Donalds (R) 53%,Jay Collins 10%,James Fishback 9%,Paul Renner 4% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-07-12–2026-07-13 · n=500 · Byron Donalds (R) 43%,James Fishback 12%,Jay Collins 11%,Paul Renner 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2026-07-08–2026-07-11 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%,Jay Collins 9%,James Fishback 8%,Paul Renner 4% · release
- Republican primary · David J Wolfson · 2026-07-02–2026-07-06 · n=934 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%,Jay Collins 20%,James Fishback 10%,Paul Renner 2% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-03–2026-06-07 · n=386 · Byron Donalds (R) 54%,James Fishback 8%,Jay Collins 5%,Paul Renner 2% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Listener Group/ Political Matrix News (partisan) · 2026-05-31–2026-06-03 · n=973 · Byron Donalds (R) 29%,Paul Renner 14%,Jay Collins 11%,James Fishback 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-16 · n=1,593 · Jerry Demings (D) 46%,Byron Donalds (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Cherry Communications (partisan) · 2026-05-01–2026-05-09 · n=604 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%,Jerry Demings (D) 39% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-04-26–2026-04-30 · n=420 · Byron Donalds (R) 54%,James Fishback 9%,Jay Collins 7%,Paul Renner 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Stetson University · 2026-03-15–2026-04-13 · n=848 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%,Jerry Demings (D) 42% · release
- Republican primary · Stetson University · 2026-03-25–2026-04-13 · n=373 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%,Paul Renner 7%,Jay Collins 6%,James Fishback 5% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=406 · Byron Donalds (R) 48%,Jerry Demings (D) 44% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=465 · Byron Donalds (R) 46%,Jay Collins 4%,James Fishback 4%,Paul Renner 3% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=465 · Byron Donalds (R) 44%,Casey DeSantis 7% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · Casey DeSantis (R) 41%,Jerry Demings (D) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%,Jerry Demings (D) 36% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,165 · David Jolly (D) 40%,Casey DeSantis (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Democratic primary · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=362 · David Jolly (D) 21%,Jerry Demings 10%,Dayna Marie Foster 2% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-02-21–2026-03-02 · n=786 · Byron Donalds (R) 43%,Jerry Demings (D) 36% · release
- Republican primary · The American Promise · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=800 · Byron Donalds (R) 44%,James Fishback 5%,Jay Collins 4%,Paul Renner 2% · release
- Democratic primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-02-20–2026-02-22 · n=471 · David Jolly (D) 31%,Jerry Demings 23% · release
- Republican primary · University of North Florida · 2026-02-16–2026-02-20 · n=657 · Byron Donalds (R) 31%,James Fishback 6%,Jay Collins 4%,Paul Renner 1% · release
- Republican primary · Targoz Market Research · 2026-02-13–2026-02-16 · n=401 · Byron Donalds (R) 33%,Jay Collins 15%,Paul Renner 9%,James Fishback 3% · release
- Republican primary · Patriot Polling (partisan) · 2026-01-19–2026-01-29 · n=827 · Byron Donalds (R) 37%,James Fishback 23% · release
- Republican primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-01-08–2026-01-13 · n=400 · Byron Donalds (R) 37%,Jay Collins 7%,Paul Renner 4%,James Fishback 3% · release
- Democratic primary · Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · 2026-01-08–2026-01-13 · n=400 · David Jolly (D) 23%,Jerry Demings 19% · release
- Republican primary · Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (partisan) · 2026-01-04–2026-01-06 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%,Jay Collins 6%,James Fishback 4%,Paul Renner 3% · release
- Republican primary · Public Opinion Strategies (partisan) · 2025-12-07–2025-12-11 · n=700 · Byron Donalds (R) 40%,Jay Collins 13% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2025-12-08–2025-12-09 · n=800 · Byron Donalds (R) 38%,Jay Collins 9%,James Fishback 2%,Paul Renner 1% · release
- Democratic primary · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-02–2025-12-03 · n=616 · Jerry Demings 22%,David Jolly (D) 22% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2025-11-11–2025-11-13 · n=600 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%,Paul Renner 3%,James Fishback 1%,Jay Collins 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Byron Donalds (R) 45%,Jerry Demings (D) 33% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Casey DeSantis (R) 47%,Jerry Demings (D) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Casey DeSantis (R) 47%,David Jolly (D) 34% · release
In the news
- DeSantis says ‘corporatist Republicans’ drive young voters toward socialism after GOP’s midterm disaster
- Donalds says GOP must campaign on new healthcare policy in 2028
- Byron Donalds says it’s a ‘matter of pride’ to be Florida’s first Black governor
- After GOP's brutal midterms, ‘Chuck Norris of Florida politics’ tells party to 'get up and fight'
- The White House’s post-election shake-up: From the Politics Desk
- Meet the history-makers of the 120th Congress
- DeSantis blasts Washington Post over report he's preparing 2028 presidential bid
- Black candidates for governor make history with midterm victories
- These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansion
- Blue wave battered GOP strongholds across America, but one red state held the line
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 1 Vugol Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
1OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum3 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres) · missing: incumbent, money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-12 (2 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5154dd7cbaef · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.