U.S. House - FL-07 · Florida · 2026
General election · 5 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Result
CalledRyan Elijah (R) won this race with 49.7% of the vote.
- Joe AdamsOtherWinner68.1%43,196 votes
- Michael T. JohnsonOtherWinner55.6%9,053 votes
- Ryan ElijahRepublicanWinner49.7%161,300 votes
- Bale DaltonDemocratic49.2%159,669 votes
- Christopher KarchOther44.4%7,234 votes
- Greg FountainOther31.9%20,196 votes
- Christopher DennisonLibertarian1.1%3,485 votes
- Margin
- 118,104 votes (-18.4 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 10, 2:39 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 12, 7:42 PM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 poll on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated yesterday. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 49/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (5)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-13. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (4)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (1)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,374 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-13 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Mills | $899,203 | $876,475 | $63,620 | 2026-09-30 |
| Alan Mark Grayson | $743,097 | $715,853 | $154,161 | 2026-09-30 |
| Bale Dalton | $2,334,664 | $2,132,410 | $202,254 | 2026-10-14 |
| Christopher Allen Dennison | $10,500 | $10,440 | $60 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jennifer Adams | $35,056 | $29,925 | $5,137 | 2025-06-30 |
| Marialana Kinter | $606,215 | $606,215 | $0 | 2026-10-14 |
| Michael Johnson | $63,246 | $64,965 | $8,010 | 2026-09-30 |
| Noah Widmann | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-13 |
| Ryan Elijah | $818,460 | $645,454 | $173,006 | 2026-10-14 |
| Sarah Ulrich | $19,776 | $19,776 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Elijah | $70K | $783K | $1.7M |
| Bale Dalton | $194K | $1.4M | $390K |
| Cory Mills | $2,000 | $402K | |
| Alan Mark Grayson | $213K | ||
| Marialana Kinter | $56K | ||
| Michael Johnson | $37K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Ryan Elijah. For: CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $579K, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $180K, STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC $24K. Against: HMP $1.5M, VoteVets $110K, Building Together $18K
- Bale Dalton. For: BDA PAC $700K, Project 218 $632K, Building Together $18K. Against: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $191K, CIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC. $126K, MAGA INC. $73K
- Cory Mills. Against: LCV Victory Fund $306K, STAND FOR FREEDOM PAC $97K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-01, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Ryan Elijah won | 161,300 | 49.7% |
| Bale Dalton | 159,669 | 49.2% |
| Joe Adams won | 43,196 | 68.1% |
| Greg Fountain | 20,196 | 31.9% |
| Michael T. Johnson won | 9,053 | 55.6% |
| Christopher Karch | 7,234 | 44.4% |
| Christopher Dennison | 3,485 | 1.1% |
Ryan Elijah leads by 1,631 votes.
Democratic primary
| Bale Dalton won | 21,776 | 45.5% |
| Marialana Kinter | 17,022 | 35.6% |
| Alan Grayson | 9,071 | 18.9% |
Republican primary
| Ryan Elijah won | 31,558 | 47.3% |
| Cory Mills (incumbent) | 22,753 | 34.1% |
| Sarah Ulrich | 7,010 | 10.5% |
| Mike Johnson | 5,411 | 8.1% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+wiki-house-summary-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (5)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · DCCC · 2026-10-17–2026-10-19 · n=414 · Generic Republican 47%,Generic Democrat 44% · release
- Republican primary · Capital Strategic Partners · 2026-08-14–2026-08-15 · n=929 · Ryan Elijah (R) 44%,Cory Mills (R) 27% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-06 · n=1,200 · Cory Mills (R) 28%,Ryan Elijah (R) 22%,Sarah Ulrich (R) 5%,Mike Johnson (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · St. Pete Polls · 2026-08-03–2026-08-04 · n=304 · Cory Mills (R) 30%,Ryan Elijah (R) 14%,Sarah Ulrich (R) 8%,Mike Johnson (R) 7% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=570 · Bale Dalton (D) 41%,Cory Mills (R) 39% · release
In the news
- Former Florida news anchor to succeed embattled Mills in House
- These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yet
- Midterm voters forced to choose between alleged adulterers, abusers, criminals and other ethically challenged pols
- Sexual harassment rules for Congress are under review after a flurry of ethics cases
- Leadership barnstorming continues ahead of midterm elections
- Trump-backed GOP candidate who ousted scandal-plagued incumbent warns against 'never-ending war' with Iran
- Democrat bets on anti-corruption pitch in Pennsylvania swing district
- GOP rising star helped topple Trump-backed incumbent. Now he's caught leadership's eye
- At the Races: Debate demands and dodges
- Florida Democrat is latest candidate to unveil anticorruption plan
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 49 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+1.9. Four times in five the result lands between D+7.5 and R+11.3; nine in ten between D+10.1 and R+14.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 40%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 71cb85330775 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.