U.S. House — FL-07 · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (5)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida&oldid=1377372095
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Mills | $880,711 | $853,938 | $67,665 | 2026-07-29 |
| Alan Mark Grayson | $388,153 | $386,772 | $128,299 | 2026-07-29 |
| Bale Dalton | $1,378,109 | $902,251 | $475,858 | 2026-07-29 |
| Christopher Allen Dennison | $10,500 | $10,440 | $60 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jennifer Adams | $35,056 | $29,925 | $5,137 | 2025-06-30 |
| Marialana Kinter | $565,078 | $505,225 | $59,853 | 2026-07-29 |
| Michael Johnson | $60,098 | $61,826 | $7,895 | 2026-07-29 |
| Noah Widmann | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-29 |
| Ryan Elijah | $355,955 | $169,801 | $186,155 | 2026-07-29 |
| Sarah Ulrich | $19,059 | $17,665 | $1,394 | 2026-07-29 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary
| Bale Dalton won | 21,776 | 45.5% |
| Marialana Kinter | 17,022 | 35.6% |
| Alan Grayson | 9,071 | 18.9% |
Republican primary
| Ryan Elijah won | 31,558 | 47.3% |
| Cory Mills (incumbent) | 22,753 | 34.1% |
| Sarah Ulrich | 7,010 | 10.5% |
| Mike Johnson | 5,411 | 8.1% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (4)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · Capital Strategic Partners · 2026-08-14–2026-08-15 · n=929 · Ryan Elijah (R) 44%, Cory Mills (R) 27% · release
- Republican primary · Victory Insights (partisan) · 2026-08-04–2026-08-06 · n=1,200 · Cory Mills (R) 28%, Ryan Elijah (R) 22%, Sarah Ulrich (R) 5%, Mike Johnson (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · St. Pete Polls · 2026-08-03–2026-08-04 · n=304 · Cory Mills (R) 30%, Ryan Elijah (R) 14%, Sarah Ulrich (R) 8%, Mike Johnson (R) 7% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-05-20–2026-05-21 · n=570 · Bale Dalton (D) 41%, Cory Mills (R) 39% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention — Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.