Moody +6
- Angela Nixon Democratic: 43%
- Ashley Moody Republican: 49%
Other 2% · Undecided 6%
FL2026
U.S. Senate · Florida · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledAshley Moody (R) won this race with 50.9% of the vote, 2.9 points ahead.
- Ashley MoodyRepublicanWinner50.9%4,211,455 votes
- Angie NixonDemocratic48.0%3,974,148 votes
- Neil J. GillespieIndependent1.1%94,665 votes
- Margin
- 237,307 votes (2.9 points)
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 8:35 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 9, 2:50 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Race poll averageU.S. Senate · Florida
Angela Nixon
47%
Ashley Moody
53%
Verified poll average · 11 polls · newest poll ended 2026-10-29
Verified polls Moody leads Nixon by 5.3 points in our average of verified polls.
11 verified polls averaged, newest ended 2026-10-29. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 1/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (3)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (9)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Alan Mark GraysonDemocraticNot on the November ballotnot on fileHector Daniel MujicaDemocraticNot on the November ballot$857KJake LangRepublicanNot on the November ballot$33KJennifer JenkinsDemocraticNot on the November ballotnot on fileJoey Mendoza AtkinsDemocraticNot on the November ballot$9KJoshua Joseph WeilDemocraticNot on the November ballot$15.9MJoshua WeilDemocraticNot on the November ballotnot on fileNeil Joseph GilespieIndependentNot on the November ballot$13KTamika LylesDemocraticNot on the November ballot$23K
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Early vote in Florida
5,547,554 ballots cast statewide as of 2026-11-14 · registered Democrats 37.8%, Republicans 40.1%, unaffiliated 19.6%. Turnout by registration, not votes; never part of the rating. Full tracker →
Moody +5.3
- Angela Nixon Democratic: 47.4%
- Ashley Moody Republican: Incumbent52.6%
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-FL
Sourcehttps://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-survey-donalds-49-jolly-45-moody-49-nixon-43/
Retrieved2026-11-14
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
52.6% Ashley Moody47.4% Angela Nixon
Ashley Moody (R)Angie Nixon (D)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Vugol Tensor
How far this poll average can miss · a range, not a prediction
Centre R+5.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+1.4 and R+12.0; nine in ten between D+3.3 and R+13.9. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 16%.
Same inputs as the Vugol Tensor page: the verified polling average above (11 verified polls), plus how far polls have missed since 1998. In the backtest the plain poll average picked the wrong winner in about 11% of polled, mostly competitive races (11.2%, 946 races, 1998 to 2024), and polls miss together. Not a forecast guarantee. How Tensor works →
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | $14,524,032 | $13,707,677 | $816,355 | 2026-10-14 |
| Alan Mark Grayson | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Alexander Vindman | $20,487,916 | $16,370,307 | $4,117,609 | 2026-09-30 |
| Angela Nixon | $11,319,380 | $8,052,586 | $3,266,795 | 2026-10-14 |
| Christopher Gleason | $32,065 | $32,404 | $-339 | 2026-09-30 |
| Ernest Ernie John Rivera | $16,235 | $15,350 | $884 | 2026-09-30 |
| Hector Daniel Mujica | $856,667 | $854,687 | $1,980 | 2026-09-30 |
| Jake Lang | $32,876 | $31,375 | $1,501 | 2026-09-30 |
| Jennifer Jenkins | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Joey Mendoza Atkins | $9,473 | $8,772 | $701 | 2026-09-30 |
| Joshua Joseph Weil | $15,933,478 | $15,933,478 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Joshua Weil | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-11-14 |
| Neil Joseph Gilespie | $13,284 | $12,650 | $634 | 2026-10-14 |
| Tamika Lyles | $23,287 | $23,287 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Nixon | $169K | $5.8M | $10.5M |
| Ashley Moody | $141K | $4.2M | $5.1M |
| Alexander Vindman | $4M | ||
| Joshua Joseph Weil | $1.9M | ||
| Alan Mark Grayson | $213K | ||
| Hector Daniel Mujica | $213K |
Biggest outside spenders
- Angela Nixon. For: AB PAC $2.6M, TD PAC $1.6M, Progressive Turnout Project $630K. Against: STRONGER SAFER NATION $10.5M, THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY $18K
- Ashley Moody. For: STRONGER SAFER NATION $3M, SLF PAC $280K, SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND $249K. Against: New Deal for All, Inc. $4.7M, BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC $250K, SEIU COPE (Service Employees International Union Committee On Political Education) $83K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-09, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Ashley Moody won | 4,211,455 | 50.9% |
| Ashley Moody (incumbent) won | 4,210,242 | 50.9% |
| Angie Nixon | 3,974,148 | 48.0% |
| Angie Nixon | 3,972,095 | 48.0% |
| Neil J. Gillespie | 94,665 | 1.1% |
Ashley Moody leads by 237,307 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary · official results
| Angie Nixon won | 705,835 | 56.1% |
| Alex Vindman | 553,138 | 43.9% |
Republican primary
| Ashley Moody (incumbent) won | 1,320,780 | 79.6% |
| Chris Gleason | 228,010 | 13.7% |
| Ernie Rivera | 79,973 | 4.8% |
| Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,250 | 1.9% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-07 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+all-reporting/unassailable-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (14)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-07-08–2026-07-17 · n=848 · Ashley Moody (R) 50%,Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-03–2026-06-07 · n=800 · Ashley Moody (R) 47%,Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=1,000 · Ashley Moody (R) 46%,Alexander Vindman (D) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-16 · n=1,593 · Alexander Vindman (D) 47%,Ashley Moody (R) 45% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Cherry Communications (partisan) · 2026-05-01–2026-05-09 · n=604 · Ashley Moody (R) 48%,Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Stetson University · 2026-03-15–2026-04-13 · n=848 · Ashley Moody (R) 49%,Alexander Vindman (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=406 · Ashley Moody (R) 50%,Alexander Vindman (D) 43% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · MDW (partisan) · 2026-03-27–2026-04-03 · n=1,834 · Ashley Moody (R) 43%,Alexander Vindman (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-02–2026-04-03 · n=574 · Ashley Moody (R) 43%,Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,125 · Ashley Moody (R) 46%,Alexander Vindman (D) 38% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,125 · Ashley Moody (R) 45%,Hector Mujica (D) 38% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-02-21–2026-03-02 · n=786 · Ashley Moody (R) 45%,Alexander Vindman (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Ashley Moody (R) 47%,Jennifer Jenkins (D) 37% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2025-10-01–2025-10-03 · n=800 · Ashley Moody (R) 44%,Jennifer Jenkins (D) 37% · release
In the news
- Angie Nixon fires back at Carville: 'He needs to go retire'
- After GOP's brutal midterms, ‘Chuck Norris of Florida politics’ tells party to 'get up and fight'
- The 2026 blue wave, in charts
- Nixon calls Florida 'missed opportunity' for Democrats
- Winners and losers of historic midterm elections that handed Dems control of Congress
- Trump cancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas in favor of holding numerous tele-rallies
- DeSantis 2028 buzz builds after Florida withstands blue wave: ‘Only reason Florida didn’t fall’
- 15 lessons from the midterms as Democrats rebound with historic wave
- As Midterm Ads Focus on Epstein, a Florida Senator Is the Latest Target
- Florida congressman diagnoses GOP's blue tsunami losses: 'We failed to make them think we cared about them'
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 1 Vugol Vector R · Open
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
1OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum3 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, pres, incumbent, money) · missing: prior, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-11 (3 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 9c602d596a8a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: Toss-up. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.