U.S. Senate · Florida · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Open) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
10 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 59/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (3)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Other filers (9)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Ballot source: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/FederalOffices/USSenator
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
10 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | $11,270,805 | $2,779,629 | $8,491,175 | 2026-07-29 |
| Alan Mark Grayson | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Alexander Vindman | $16,273,862 | $9,020,003 | $7,253,859 | 2026-07-29 |
| Angela Nixon | $974,845 | $709,866 | $264,978 | 2026-07-29 |
| Christopher Gleason | $26,001 | $25,213 | $788 | 2026-07-29 |
| Ernest Ernie John Rivera | $15,973 | $15,003 | $970 | 2026-07-29 |
| Hector Daniel Mujica | $856,667 | $845,911 | $10,756 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jake Lang | $32,876 | $31,375 | $1,501 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jennifer Jenkins | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Joey Mendoza Atkins | $9,473 | $8,741 | $732 | 2026-07-29 |
| Joshua Joseph Weil | $15,933,478 | $15,933,478 | $0 | 2025-09-30 |
| Joshua Weil | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Neil Joseph Gilespie | $12,297 | $11,460 | $837 | 2026-07-29 |
| Tamika Lyles | $23,287 | $23,287 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Angie Nixon won | 705,835 | 56.1% |
| Alex Vindman | 553,138 | 43.9% |
Republican primary
| Ashley Moody (incumbent) won | 1,320,780 | 79.6% |
| Chris Gleason | 228,010 | 13.7% |
| Ernie Rivera | 79,973 | 4.8% |
| Neelam Taneja Perry | 31,250 | 1.9% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-08-18 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (14)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-07-08–2026-07-17 · n=848 · Ashley Moody (R) 50%, Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2026-06-03–2026-06-07 · n=800 · Ashley Moody (R) 47%, Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=1,000 · Ashley Moody (R) 46%, Alexander Vindman (D) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-05-13–2026-05-16 · n=1,593 · Alexander Vindman (D) 47%, Ashley Moody (R) 45% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Cherry Communications (partisan) · 2026-05-01–2026-05-09 · n=604 · Ashley Moody (R) 48%, Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Stetson University · 2026-03-15–2026-04-13 · n=848 · Ashley Moody (R) 49%, Alexander Vindman (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Echelon Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-03–2026-04-09 · n=406 · Ashley Moody (R) 50%, Alexander Vindman (D) 43% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · MDW (partisan) · 2026-03-27–2026-04-03 · n=1,834 · Ashley Moody (R) 43%, Alexander Vindman (D) 42% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Public Policy Polling (partisan) · 2026-04-02–2026-04-03 · n=574 · Ashley Moody (R) 43%, Alexander Vindman (D) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,125 · Ashley Moody (R) 46%, Alexander Vindman (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2026-03-29–2026-03-31 · n=1,125 · Ashley Moody (R) 45%, Hector Mujica (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2026-02-21–2026-03-02 · n=786 · Ashley Moody (R) 45%, Alexander Vindman (D) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · University of North Florida · 2025-10-15–2025-10-25 · n=728 · Ashley Moody (R) 47%, Jennifer Jenkins (D) 37% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · The Tyson Group (partisan) · 2025-10-01–2025-10-03 · n=800 · Ashley Moody (R) 44%, Jennifer Jenkins (D) 37% · release
In the news
- Senate laterals college sports bill to House, but forward progress uncertain
- Two powerful federal courts face push to break free from DC bubble as unlikely duo steps in
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 59 Vector R · Open
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 c54a9b0e69ad · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: Toss-up (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.