General election · 2 on file, ballot not yet verified · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Held) on the Vugol Vector model — a snapshot of today, not a probability.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 42/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
From FEC filings and public records. Filing with the FEC does not put someone on the ballot; we are checking each state’s certified candidate list and will mark who is on the November ballot.
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below — it is not a poll.
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Team plans.
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+17.0. Four times in five the result lands between D+26.4 and D+7.6; nine in ten between D+29.1 and D+4.9. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 99%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Vugol Vector band: D · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
