Who is ahead in the 2026 Connecticut Secretary of State race?

Name: Secretary of State, Connecticut, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Stephanie Thomas (D) won the CT Secretary of State race. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Anchored (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / Connecticut / Secretary of State

CT2026

Secretary of State · Connecticut · 2026

General election · 2 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

VecD 77 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att57

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Stephanie Thomas (D) won this race.

Stephanie ThomasDemocraticIncumbentWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Peter Lumaj (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 4:10 PM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 5, 1:33 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (race summary table) · official results page

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

CandidatesSecretary of State · Connecticut

Stephanie Thomas

DIncumbent

DEM

Peter Lumaj

REP

No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Anchored

D · AnchoredVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated yesterday. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 57/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 13 days ago. How it works

On the Connecticut ballot, Nov 3, 2026 Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in Connecticut? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (2)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-05. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Stephanie ThomasSecretary of State - CTDemocratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file Peter LumajSecretary of State - CT · FEC S2CT00272RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_secretary_of_state_elections&oldid=1383813170

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-11, Election: U.S. House, DEM
2026-05-15, Convention: U.S. House, REP
2026-08-11, Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 57 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

57OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Vugol Attention percentile69th

7-day momentum40 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-01 (13 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+19.3. Four times in five the result lands between D+28.7 and D+9.9; nine in ten between D+31.4 and D+7.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 b5755251e869 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.