CT2026

Governor · Connecticut · 2026

Name: Governor, Connecticut — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 1 on the November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

7 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 55/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (1)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Ned LamontGovernor — CTDemocratic IncumbentOn the ballotFEC raisednot on file

Other filers (3)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Matthew CoreyGovernor — CT · FEC S8CT00121RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Ryan FazioGovernor — CTRepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file Susan BysiewiczGovernor — CTDemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raisednot on file

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1377323317

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no verified inputs yet

7 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.

Ned Lamont (D)Ryan Fazio (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Ned Lamont (incumbent) won	126,497	67.9%
Josh Elliott	59,849	32.1%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-11 — Election: U.S. House — DEM
2026-05-15 — Convention: U.S. House — REP
2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (9)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-07-23–2026-07-26 · n=859 · Ned Lamont (D) 48%, Josh Elliott 27% · release
Democratic primary · Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider · 2026-07-21–2026-07-26 · n=374 · Ned Lamont (D) 57%, Josh Elliott 22% · release
Hypothetical matchup · Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider · 2026-07-21–2026-07-26 · n=1,000 · Josh Elliot (D) 44%, Ryan Fazio (R) 30% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-06-18–2026-06-23 · n=286 · Ned Lamont (D) 53%, Josh Elliott 23% · release
Democratic primary · Change Research (partisan) · 2026-05-28–2026-05-29 · n=887 · Ned Lamont (D) 58%, Josh Elliott 20% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-04-16–2026-04-20 · n=177 · Ned Lamont (D) 52%, Josh Elliott 18% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2026-02-12–2026-02-16 · n=174 · Ned Lamont (D) 57%, Josh Elliott 13% · release
Democratic primary · University of New Hampshire · 2025-11-13–2025-11-17 · n=235 · Ned Lamont (D) 55%, Josh Elliott 7% · release
Republican primary · OnMessage Inc. (partisan) · 2025-08-11–2025-08-14 · n=400 · Erin Stewart 42%, Ryan Fazio (R) 13% · release

Signals (experimental)

Attention 55 Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

55OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile89th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-28 (2 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +19.1Presidential lean of the seat (2024 D +14.5, national swing D +8.4)D +22.9Last result for this seat (2022 D +12.9, national swing D +8.5)D +21.4IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 19686cedaf1a · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.