Home / Races / Connecticut / U.S. House — CT-01

CT2026

U.S. House — CT-01 · Connecticut · 2026

Name: U.S. House — CT-01, Connecticut — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 1 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 43/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works

On the November ballot (1)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-29. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Luke BroninU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H6CT01206DemocraticOn the ballotFEC raised$3.1M

Ran in the primary (3)

Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.

John B LarsonU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H8CT01046Democratic IncumbentLost primaryFEC raised$2.7M Jillian GilchrestU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H6CT01222DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$164K Ruth R. FortuneU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H6CT01180DemocraticLost primaryFEC raised$107K

Other filers (2)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Amy Fogelstrom ChaiU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H2CT03102RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$21K Jack PerryU.S. House — CT-01 · FEC H6CT01198DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$532K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Connecticut&oldid=1377296642

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
John B Larson Democratic	$2,733,260	$2,172,086	$809,903	2026-07-22
Amy Fogelstrom Chai Republican	$20,827	$16,227	$344	2026-06-30
Jack Perry Democratic	$532,427	$532,427	$0	2025-12-31
Jillian Gilchrest Democratic	$163,909	$129,365	$34,544	2026-07-22
Luke Bronin Democratic	$3,070,151	$2,469,257	$600,894	2026-07-22
Ruth R. Fortune Democratic	$106,849	$85,466	$21,383	2026-07-22

Results

Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.

Democratic primary

Luke Bronin won	29,219	53.6%
John Larson (incumbent)	18,221	33.4%
Jillian Gilchrest	4,468	8.2%
Ruth Fortune	2,568	4.7%

Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-29 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-05-11 — Election: U.S. House — DEM
2026-05-15 — Convention: U.S. House — REP
2026-08-11 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Primary and hypothetical polls (2)

Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.

Democratic primary · Global Strategy Group (partisan) · 2026-05-18–2026-05-21 · n=500 · Luke Bronin (D) 38%, John Larson (D) 30%, Jillian Gilchrest (D) 10%, Ruth Fortune (D) 4% · release
Democratic primary · GQR (partisan) · 2026-01-27–2026-02-01 · n=400 · John Larson (D) 49%, Luke Bronin (D) 26%, Jillian Gilchrest (D) 9% · release

In the news

Many voters want generational change. Boomer priorities still rule.Christian Science Monitor · Sep 21

Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news

Signals (experimental)

Attention 43 Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

43OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile64th

7-day momentum3 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-27 (2 days ago)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +25.8Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 D +28.9, national swing D +10.5)D +39.4IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 cc2e945be479 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.