Home / Races / California / U.S. House — CA-45

CA2026

U.S. House — CA-45 · California · 2026

Name: U.S. House — CA-45, California — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention 42/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated today. How it works

On the November ballot (2)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-27, checked 2026-09-30.

Derek TranU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H4CA45170Democratic IncumbentFEC raised$5.0M Chuong VoU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H6CA45191RepublicanFEC raised$496K

Not on the certified ballot (5)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Amy Phan WestU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H6CA45183RepublicanFEC raised$59K Chi Charlie NguyenU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H6CA45167RepublicanFEC raised$485K Mark Andrew LeonardU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H6CA45159RepublicanFEC raised$26K Michelle SteelU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H0CA48198RepublicanFEC raised$1.3M Thomas Ky-Phong VoU.S. House — CA-45 · FEC H6CA45209RepublicanFEC raised$757K

Official source: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Derek Tran Democratic	$4,981,277	$2,051,202	$3,257,398	2026-06-30
Amy Phan West Republican	$59,400	$55,744	$3,656	2026-06-30
Chi Charlie Nguyen Republican	$485,485	$485,485	$0	2026-07-10
Chuong Vo Republican	$495,763	$420,887	$74,876	2026-06-30
Mark Andrew Leonard Republican	$25,945	$8,145	$17,801	2026-06-30
Michelle Steel Republican	$1,252,672	$2,156,133	$0	2025-10-09
Thomas Ky-Phong Vo Republican	$756,510	$756,510	$0	2026-06-16

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention 42 Vector D · Tilting

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

42OUT OF 100Moderate attention

Attention percentile50th

7-day momentum23 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-30 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +8.2Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +2.8Last result for this seat (2024 D +0.2, national swing D +10.5)D +10.7IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a85417c31535 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.