Who is ahead in the 2026 California's 26th District race?

Name: U.S. House - CA-26, California, Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Jacqui Irwin (D) won the CA-26 race. No verified poll average yet. The Vugol Vector model rates it Anchored (D), a snapshot of today, not a probability. Updated 2026-11-14.

Home / Races / California / U.S. House - CA-26

CA2026

U.S. House - CA-26 · California · 2026

General election · 1 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)

VecD 77 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att28

TV graphic Vugol race poll

Result

Called

Jacqui Irwin (D) won this race.

Jacqui IrwinDemocraticWinnerno count in the source

Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Sam Gallucci (R).

Called: Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 2:51 AM ET (revision)
Last updated: Nov 4, 10:31 AM ET
Source: Wikipedia (House results table) · official results page

Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call

Unofficial until the state certifies the result.

Before the election

Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.

D · AnchoredVugol Vector model

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated

ExperimentalNews attention 28/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 12 days ago. How it works

On the California ballot, Nov 3, 2026 United States Representative, District 26, 2 names on the official list. Election Day has passed; see the ballot as it was.Voting in California? Check your registration, get a mail ballot, find your polling place.

On the November ballot (1)

From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-04. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.

Samuel GallucciU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H6CA26241RepublicanOn the ballotFEC raised$538K

Other filers (5)

Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.

Chris EspinosaU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H6CA26308DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$131K Jacqui Irwin VU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H6CA26266DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$1.2M Michael S KoslowU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H4CA26162RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$88K Sonia Devgan-KackerU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H6CA26316DemocraticNot on the November ballotFEC raised$78K William ScottU.S. House - CA-26 · FEC H6CA26258RepublicanNot on the November ballotFEC raised$30K

Ballot source: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections&oldid=1383742945

Latest verified field polling

Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

In the news

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Lab

Vugol Vector & Vugol Attention

Vugol Attention 28 Vugol Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

attention-1.0.0

28OUT OF 100Low attention

Vugol Attention percentile36th

7-day momentum1 / 100

Source breadth50% of tracked

Vugol Vector

Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness3 of 7 inputs (national, prior, money) · missing: pres, incumbent, pulse, poll

Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-02 (12 days ago)

The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.

Vugol Tensor

How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested

tensor-1.0.0

Centre D+19.1. Four times in five the result lands between D+28.5 and D+9.7; nine in ten between D+31.2 and D+7.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.

Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →

Desk data: daily telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans

Sources

Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 fdbd030ce1db · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.

The four Vugol signals, side by side

They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.

Vugol Vector: Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
Vugol Tensor: How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
Vugol Attention: How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
Vugol Pulse: Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.