U.S. House — CA-23 · California · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 15/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 11 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-27, checked 2026-09-30.
Not on the certified ballot (4)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte | $1,455,868 | $809,486 | $1,644,222 | 2026-06-30 |
| Alexis L Claiborne | $11,843 | $6,341 | $2,655 | 2025-12-31 |
| Charles Patrick Wallis | $63,684 | $63,660 | $24 | 2026-06-23 |
| Karen Matthews | $174,651 | $174,651 | $0 | 2026-06-22 |
| Paul Chakalian | $72,675 | $72,675 | $0 | 2026-01-29 |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | $79,499 | $69,262 | $10,237 | 2026-06-30 |
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
- Some lawmakers doubt a Congress that’s ‘barely capable of email’ can regulate AI
- Amid calls for AI rules, who in Congress has the tech savvy to help?
- Sobering warning about AI’s potential harm focuses Congress’ attention
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 15 Vector R · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 5fca08eda970 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.