U.S. House — CA-16 · California · 2026

Name: U.S. House — CA-16, California — Vugol Me Attention & Vector
Creator: Vugol Me
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running

Community poll

Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.

No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated

News attention — — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. First run pending. How it works

On the November ballot (1)

Certified by the state on 2026-08-27, checked 2026-09-29.

Sam T. LiccardoU.S. House — CA-16 · FEC H4CA16197Democratic IncumbentFEC raised$3.5M

Also on the certified ballot: Peter Sundin Soulé (Republican).

Not on the certified ballot (1)

Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.

Jotham SteinU.S. House — CA-16 · FEC H6CA16143No Party AffiliationFEC raised$72K

Official source: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf

Latest verified field polling

Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.

none yet

No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.

Polling average

no polls yet

No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.

Campaign money (FEC)

Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Through
Sam T. Liccardo Democratic	$3,489,298	$1,426,732	$2,152,957	2026-06-30
Jotham Stein No Party Affiliation	$72,382	$74,281	$1	2026-09-24

Key dates

Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.

2026-06-02 — Primary election: U.S. House
2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House

Source: FEC election dates (public domain).

Signals (experimental)

Attention — Vector D · Anchored

Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)

Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly

pulse-1.0.0

Signals for this race are being collected. The first Attention score lands after the nightly run reaches it; nothing is estimated in the meantime.

Vugol Me Vector (experimental)

Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium

vector-1.1.0

Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean

AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored

Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, incumbent, money) · missing: pres, pulse, poll

Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only

Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-29 (today)

Vector component signals · estimated margin D +67.3Fundraising velocity (FEC)D +8.0Last result for this seat (2024 D +100.0, national swing D +10.5)D +110.5IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-29), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.

Daily precision telemetry

Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans

Sources

Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).

Band: D · Anchored (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.