U.S. House - CA-06 · California · 2026
General election · 2 on the certified November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledFlip: other to DRichard Pan (D) won this race, defeating incumbent Kevin Kiley.
- Richard PanDemocraticWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Kevin Kiley (I).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 2:51 AM ET (revision)
- Seat
- Changed party: held by Kevin Kiley (other)
- Last updated
- Nov 4, 10:31 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Democratic (Anchored) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 73/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
Certified by the state on 2026-08-27, checked 2026-11-14.
Not on the certified ballot (5)
Filed or ran for this seat, but not on the state’s certified list for November.
Official source: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiley | $3,723,215 | $4,069,545 | $34,648 | 2026-10-14 |
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | $566,728 | $566,728 | $0 | 2026-10-15 |
| Martha Guerrero | $204,970 | $204,845 | $124 | 2026-07-24 |
| Michael Stansfield | $17,441 | $17,441 | $0 | 2026-03-31 |
| Richard Pan | $2,548,242 | $2,340,306 | $207,936 | 2026-10-14 |
| Thien Ho | $911,698 | $909,631 | $2,068 | 2026-09-30 |
| Tyler Isaac Vandenberg | $122,558 | $122,558 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiley | $467K | $2M | $3.4M |
| Richard Pan | $105K | $2.3M | $669K |
| Lauren Babb Tomlinson | $94K | $1.7M | |
| Thien Ho | $139K | ||
| Martha Guerrero | $39K | ||
| Tyler Isaac Vandenberg | $8,500 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Kevin Kiley. For: INDEPENDENT PAC $800K, Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI) $738K, A STRONG INNOVATION ECONOMY REQUIRES STRONG IP PROTECTION $313K. Against: 314 Action Fund $2.6M, Health Care Saves Lives $572K, American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLE $115K
- Richard Pan. For: 314 Action Fund $1.9M, Health Care Saves Lives $152K, American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees PEOPLE $102K. Against: Center Forward Initiative Inc (CFI) $248K, COMMON SENSE FOR CALIFORNIA $221K, INDEPENDENT PAC $150K
- Lauren Babb Tomlinson. For: Leaders We Deserve $475K, Crush MAGA PAC $302K, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC $300K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-11-02, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-07-24); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-06-02, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
- Kiley calls for 'reasonable' bipartisan response to redistricting 'plague'
- Ex-GOP lawmaker, turned California Independent, talks reelection bid defeat
- GOP lawmaker ousts fellow Republican in gerrymandered California district
- Democratic lawmakers seek to restore deportation protections to Afghans in the U.S.
- All the Republican House members ousted from Congress
- How redrawn House districts voted in the midterms
- Soros-backed PAC helped sweep ‘woke doctor’ Dems into Congress
- All the House districts that flipped in the midterm elections
- Final rating changes: 63 races move toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans
- Newsom’s death-row commutations spark DA revolt as prosecutors warn of legal fight
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 73 Vugol Vector D · Anchored
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+22.4. Four times in five the result lands between D+31.8 and D+12.9; nine in ten between D+34.4 and D+10.3. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: >99%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 71e32ab07ea8 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Anchored. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.