AZ2026
Governor · Arizona · 2026
General election · 4 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Democratic (Tilting) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
19 polls on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 5 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 60/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 4 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (4)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ballot source: https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2026/canvass/20260806_Primary_Canvass.pdf
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
19 polls on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Katie Hobbs (D)Andy Biggs (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary · official results
| Katie Hobbs (incumbent) won | 512,550 | 100.0% |
Green primary
| Risa Lombardo won | 430 | 67.2% |
| Carlos Melendez (write-in) | 202 | 31.6% |
| Athena Eastwood (write-in) | 4 | 0.6% |
| William Pounds (write-in) | 4 | 0.6% |
No Labels Party primary
| Teri Hourihan won | 5,596 | 56.1% |
| Hugh Lytle | 4,384 | 43.9% |
Republican primary
| Andy Biggs won | 453,819 | 74.0% |
| David Schweikert | 88,284 | 14.4% |
| Scott Neely | 42,871 | 7.0% |
| Ken Miceli | 28,026 | 4.6% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-07-21 — Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-07-08–2026-07-09 · n=1,707 · Andy Biggs (R) 66%, David Schweikert 10% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-06-29–2026-07-01 · n=425 · Andy Biggs (R) 60%, David Schweikert 10% · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-17 · n=1,683 · Andy Biggs (R) 57%, David Schweikert 11% · release
- Republican primary · Stealth Analytics · 2026-05-13–2026-05-15 · n=1,100 · Andy Biggs (R) 55%, David Schweikert 9% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-05-05–2026-05-07 · n=375 · Andy Biggs (R) 48%, David Schweikert 18% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-05-05–2026-05-07 · n=996 · Katie Hobbs (D) 42%, David Schweikert (R) 35% · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-04-13–2026-04-16 · n=1,255 · Andy Biggs (R) 52%, David Schweikert 10% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=384 · Andy Biggs (R) 40%, David Schweikert 19% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=1,023 · Katie Hobbs (D) 44%, David Schweikert (R) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Center for Excellence in Polling · 2026-01-22–2026-01-24 · n=519 · Katie Hobbs (D) 50%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Center for Excellence in Polling · 2026-01-22–2026-01-24 · n=519 · Katie Hobbs (D) 51%, David Schweikert (R) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · NextGen Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-15–2025-12-17 · n=2,725 · Katie Hobbs (D) 51%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 30% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=381 · Andy Biggs (R) 50%, Karrin Taylor Robson 17%, David Schweikert 8% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=850 · Katie Hobbs (D) 44%, David Schweikert (R) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=850 · Katie Hobbs (D) 43%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 42% · release
- Republican primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-10-26–2025-10-28 · n=397 · Andy Biggs (R) 43%, Karrin Taylor Robson 19%, David Schweikert 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-10-26–2025-10-28 · n=744 · Generic Republican 44%, Katie Hobbs (D) 40% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-09-08–2025-09-10 · n=502 · Andy Biggs (R) 48%, Karrin Taylor Robson 26%, David Schweikert 11% · release
- Republican primary · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-08-19–2025-08-21 · n=679 · Andy Biggs (R) 65%, Karrin Taylor Robson 14% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-08-11–2025-08-18 · n=385 · Karrin Taylor Robson 37%, Andy Biggs (R) 27% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-08-11–2025-08-18 · n=948 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2025-06-17–2025-06-18 · n=1,380 · Andy Biggs (R) 49%, Karrin Taylor Robson 26% · release
- Republican primary · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-05-23–2025-05-25 · n=1,147 · Andy Biggs (R) 57%, Karrin Taylor Robson 25% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-05-12–2025-05-16 · n=426 · Karrin Taylor Robson 24%, Andy Biggs (R) 17%, Charlie Kirk 17%, Kimberly Yee 6% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-05-12–2025-05-16 · n=1,026 · Katie Hobbs (D) 41%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 39% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-04-06–2025-04-09 · n=501 · Katie Hobbs (D) 47%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-04-06–2025-04-09 · n=511 · Andy Biggs (R) 45%, Karrin Taylor Robson 16% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-04-02–2025-04-06 · n=477 · Andy Biggs (R) 66%, Karrin Taylor Robson 15% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%, Kimberly Yee (R) 34% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 43%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%, Jake Hoffman (R) 35% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 39%, Charlie Kirk (R) 36% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 37%, Jack McCain (R) 36% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=374 · Charlie Kirk 14%, Andy Biggs (R) 14%, Karrin Taylor Robson 11%, Jack McCain 8%, Kimberly Yee 5%, Jake Hoffman 1% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-02-05–2025-02-07 · n=924 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%, Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 59%, Kimberly Yee 11%, Karrin Taylor Robson 9% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 71%, Karrin Taylor Robson 14% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 67%, Kimberly Yee 19% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Kimberly Yee 41%, Karrin Taylor Robson 15% · release
- Republican primary · Data Orbital · 2025-01-18–2025-01-20 · n=500 · Andy Biggs (R) 32%, Karrin Taylor Robson 12%, Kimberly Yee 7% · release
In the news
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
Signals (experimental)
Attention 60 Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
60OUT OF 100Moderate attention
Attention percentile98th
7-day momentum4 / 100
Source breadth50% of tracked
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness5 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent, pulse) · missing: money, poll
Evidenceno verified poll · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-09-26 (4 days ago)
Vector component signals · estimated margin D +5.5Presidential lean of the seat (2024 R +5.5, national swing D +8.4)D +2.9Last result for this seat (2022 D +0.7, national swing D +8.5)D +9.2Attention shareD +0.0IncumbencyD +6.0National environment: our generic-ballot average is D +7.9 (27 pollsters, as of 2026-09-30), against the 2024 national House vote of R +2.6. The seat's last result and presidential lean move by that swing × 0.8 for this office; polls, incumbency and money do not. How.
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 a1cdcdef1285 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: D · Tilting (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.