Hobbs +1Within margin of error
- Katie Hobbs Democratic: 44%
- Andy Biggs Republican: 43%
AZ2026
Governor · Arizona · 2026
General election · 4 on file, ballot not yet verified · Incumbent running
Result
CalledKatie Hobbs (D) won this race.
- Katie HobbsDemocraticIncumbentWinnerno count in the source
Also on the ballot, no count in the source: Andy Biggs (R), Risa Lombardo (I), Teri Hourihan (I).
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 4, 1:25 AM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 4, 10:47 AM ET
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was D; the winner is D. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
CandidatesGovernor · Arizona
Katie Hobbs
DEM
Andy Biggs
REP
No verified poll yet · Vugol Vector: D Tilting
Verified polls Leans Democratic (Tilting) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
1 verified poll averaged. Page updated 2026-11-15. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 8/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
Candidates on file, ballot not yet verified (4)
From FEC filings and public records. Filing with the FEC does not put someone on the ballot; we are checking each state’s certified candidate list and will mark who is on the November ballot.
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
Cite / verify
Cite thishttps://vugol.me/races/US-AZ-GOV
Sourcehttps://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2026-governor/
Retrieved2026-11-15
Polling average Updates as polls arrive
Katie Hobbs (D)Andy Biggs (R)● verified poll · ○ quarantined poll · ◎ live average
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-07-21, Primary election: U.S. House
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. House
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (40)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to that article revision and, where we know it, to the pollster's own site.
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-07-08–2026-07-09 · n=1,707 · Andy Biggs (R) 66%,David Schweikert 10% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-06-29–2026-07-01 · n=425 · Andy Biggs (R) 60%,David Schweikert 10% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-06-16–2026-06-17 · n=1,683 · Andy Biggs (R) 57%,David Schweikert 11% · release
- Republican primary · Stealth Analytics · 2026-05-13–2026-05-15 · n=1,100 · Andy Biggs (R) 55%,David Schweikert 9% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-05-05–2026-05-07 · n=375 · Andy Biggs (R) 48%,David Schweikert 18% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-05-05–2026-05-07 · n=996 · Katie Hobbs (D) 42%,David Schweikert (R) 35% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2026-04-13–2026-04-16 · n=1,255 · Andy Biggs (R) 52%,David Schweikert 10% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=384 · Andy Biggs (R) 40%,David Schweikert 19% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2026-02-23–2026-02-26 · n=1,023 · Katie Hobbs (D) 44%,David Schweikert (R) 35% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Center for Excellence in Polling · 2026-01-22–2026-01-24 · n=519 · Katie Hobbs (D) 50%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 40% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Center for Excellence in Polling · 2026-01-22–2026-01-24 · n=519 · Katie Hobbs (D) 51%,David Schweikert (R) 38% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · NextGen Polling (partisan) · 2025-12-15–2025-12-17 · n=2,725 · Katie Hobbs (D) 51%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 30% · release
- Republican primary · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=381 · Andy Biggs (R) 50%,Karrin Taylor Robson 17%,David Schweikert 8% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=850 · Katie Hobbs (D) 44%,David Schweikert (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Emerson College · 2025-11-08–2025-11-10 · n=850 · Katie Hobbs (D) 43%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 42% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-10-26–2025-10-28 · n=397 · Andy Biggs (R) 43%,Karrin Taylor Robson 19%,David Schweikert 2% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Grayhouse (partisan) · 2025-10-26–2025-10-28 · n=744 · Generic Republican 44%,Katie Hobbs (D) 40% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-09-08–2025-09-10 · n=502 · Andy Biggs (R) 48%,Karrin Taylor Robson 26%,David Schweikert 11% · release
- Republican primary · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-08-19–2025-08-21 · n=679 · Andy Biggs (R) 65%,Karrin Taylor Robson 14% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-08-11–2025-08-18 · n=385 · Karrin Taylor Robson 37%,Andy Biggs (R) 27% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-08-11–2025-08-18 · n=948 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · NextGen P (partisan) · 2025-06-17–2025-06-18 · n=1,380 · Andy Biggs (R) 49%,Karrin Taylor Robson 26% · release
- Republican primary · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-05-23–2025-05-25 · n=1,147 · Andy Biggs (R) 57%,Karrin Taylor Robson 25% · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-05-12–2025-05-16 · n=426 · Karrin Taylor Robson 24%,Andy Biggs (R) 17%,Charlie Kirk 17%,Kimberly Yee 6% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-05-12–2025-05-16 · n=1,026 · Katie Hobbs (D) 41%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 39% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-04-06–2025-04-09 · n=501 · Katie Hobbs (D) 47%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2025-04-06–2025-04-09 · n=511 · Andy Biggs (R) 45%,Karrin Taylor Robson 16% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-04-02–2025-04-06 · n=477 · Andy Biggs (R) 66%,Karrin Taylor Robson 15% · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%,Kimberly Yee (R) 34% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 43%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 35% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%,Jake Hoffman (R) 35% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 39%,Charlie Kirk (R) 36% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=1,006 · Katie Hobbs (D) 37%,Jack McCain (R) 36% · pollster's site · release
- Republican primary · Noble Predictive Insights · 2025-02-11–2025-02-13 · n=374 · Charlie Kirk 14%,Andy Biggs (R) 14%,Karrin Taylor Robson 11%,Jack McCain 8%,Kimberly Yee 5%,Jake Hoffman 1% · pollster's site · release
- Hypothetical matchup · Kreate Strategies (partisan) · 2025-02-05–2025-02-07 · n=924 · Katie Hobbs (D) 40%,Karrin Taylor Robson (R) 38% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 59%,Kimberly Yee 11%,Karrin Taylor Robson 9% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 71%,Karrin Taylor Robson 14% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Andy Biggs (R) 67%,Kimberly Yee 19% · release
- Republican primary · NicoPAC (partisan) · 2025-01-24–2025-01-26 · n=512 · Kimberly Yee 41%,Karrin Taylor Robson 15% · release
- Republican primary · Data Orbital · 2025-01-18–2025-01-20 · n=500 · Andy Biggs (R) 32%,Karrin Taylor Robson 12%,Kimberly Yee 7% · release
In the news
- Arizona’s 10-year march from the Republican Party flips East Valley
- Democrats gain full control of five state governments, further expanding the party’s power
- These members of Congress are heading to the governor’s mansion
- Democrat Katie Hobbs looks likely to win Arizona
- Democrats clinch a majority of governorships for first time in 16 years
- Watch live: Trump seeks to boost Biggs, GOP in Arizona
- An hour-by-hour guide to watching the 2026 midterms, and when we’ll know who controls Congress
- Trump’s agenda meets the ballot box as states vote on abortion, redistricting and voter ID mandates
- Amid ‘time of transition,’ Freedom Caucus sees room to grow its influence
- How debates became high-risk and low-reward in the viral era
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 8 Vugol Vector D · Tilting
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
8OUT OF 100Low attention
Vugol Attention percentile0th
7-day momentum26 / 100
Source breadth0% of tracked
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: high
Democratic leanOpen centerRepublican lean
AnchoredHeldTiltingOpenTiltingHeldAnchored
Completeness4 of 7 inputs (national, prior, pres, incumbent) · missing: money, pulse, poll
Evidenceno audit release · fundamentals only
Freshnessoldest input 2026-11-13 (2 days ago)
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre D+6.7. Four times in five the result lands between D+16.1 and R+2.7; nine in ten between D+18.7 and R+5.4. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 82%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 ccd6a4519fd7 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: D · Tilting. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.