U.S. Senate · Arkansas · 2026
General election · 3 on the November ballot · Incumbent running
Result
CalledTom Cotton (R) won this race with 54.2% of the vote, 11.8 points ahead.
- Tom CottonRepublicanWinner54.2%481,345 votes
- Hallie ShoffnerDemocratic42.4%376,680 votes
- Jeff WadlinLibertarian3.3%29,520 votes
- Margin
- 104,665 votes (11.8 points)
- Reporting
- 100% of the count in
- Called
- Called by Wikipedia editors, Nov 3, 10:47 PM ET (revision)
- Last updated
- Nov 14, 9:03 AM ET
- Source
- State results feed
Called it: hit Our locked call before polls closed was R; the winner is R. See every locked call
Unofficial until the state certifies the result.
Before the election
Polls, ratings and the Vugol Tensor below were published before votes were counted. They are not results.
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on the Vugol Vector model, a snapshot of today, not a probability.
6 polls on file, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 4 of 7, updated today. Page updated 2026-11-14. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 8/100, how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 2 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (3)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-11-14. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (1)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat, not on the November ballot.
Other filers (2)
Registered with the FEC or listed in public records, but not on the November ballot as far as the results show.
Latest verified field polling
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below, it is not a poll.
Polling average
6 polls on file for this race, none verified yet (pollster not verified or no public source), visible below, not averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Cotton | $14,517,576 | $15,784,601 | $5,129,928 | 2026-10-14 |
| Ethan N Dunbar Sr. | $17,462 | $22,253 | $1,111 | 2026-03-27 |
| Hallie Shoffner | $4,042,811 | $3,285,879 | $756,932 | 2026-10-14 |
| Jeb Little | $92,532 | $92,404 | $127 | 2026-03-31 |
| Jeffrey Francis Wadlin | $80,063 | $73,772 | $6,291 | 2026-10-14 |
| Micah Ashby | $41,162 | $126 | $754 | 2026-02-11 |
Ad spending (FEC)
What each campaign reported paying for ads, and what outside groups (super PACs, PACs and parties) reported spending for and against each candidate. Federal Election Commission filings, public domain.
| Candidate | Campaign's own ads | Outside groups for | Outside groups against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner | $163K | $45K | $4.7M |
| Thomas Cotton | $687K | $591K | |
| Jeffrey Francis Wadlin | $44K | ||
| Jeb Little | $1,558 | ||
| Ethan N Dunbar Sr. | $450 |
Biggest outside spenders
- Hallie Shoffner. For: Freedom Project USA $45K. Against: America One $4.5M, ARKANSANS FOR DEMOCRACY AND JUSTICE $180K
- Thomas Cotton. For: America One $591K
Outside groups: 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports for the 2026 primary and general, through 2026-10-27, each expenditure counted once after amendments; "ads" is TV, radio, digital and other media, and the rest is mail, phones, canvassing and similar. Campaign's own ads: TV, radio, digital, other media and ad production in the campaign committee's itemized payments, as the campaign described them, from the reports the FEC has processed (latest through 2026-09-30); newer reports appear as the FEC processes them. These are amounts committees reported paying, not airtime tracked by ad-monitoring firms, so very recent buys and future reservations may not show yet. Parser fec-ad-spend-1.0.0.
Results
Vote counts from the state’s own results feed, read every minute while votes are counted. Counts change until the state certifies.
general election · state results feed, unofficial
| Tom Cotton won | 481,345 | 54.2% |
| Tom Cotton (incumbent) won | 480,627 | 54.3% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 376,680 | 42.4% |
| Hallie Shoffner | 375,647 | 42.4% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 29,520 | 3.3% |
| Jeff Wadlin | 29,485 | 3.3% |
Tom Cotton leads by 104,665 votes. 100% of reporting units counted.
Democratic primary
| Hallie Shoffner won | 102,289 | 78.3% |
| Ethan Dunbar | 28,394 | 21.7% |
Source: the state's official results feed, retrieved 2026-11-14 · parser state-feed-1.0.0+all-reporting/unassailable-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-03-03, Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-03-31, Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03, General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
In the news
- Ex-Nvidia boss agrees to testify before Congress, as GOP presses Lutnick for answers in Chinese spy scandal
- Thune will lead Republicans through the minority
- Republicans, reeling from an election drubbing, will choose their leadership in Congress
- Brian Kilmeade explains why Democrats will make a deal with Trump, and what under-the-radar Republicans could run in 2028
- A Capitol Hill vibe shift: From the Politics Desk
- ‘Political malpractice’: Calls grow to delay Senate GOP leadership elections
- Trump signals surprising approach to choosing his successor as GOP's 2028 field grows
- Congress returns for lame-duck sprint after GOP midterm losses
- For under-50 Senate hopefuls, age isn’t just a number
- Senate GOP rebels move to delay leadership vote, demand reckoning after midterm disaster
Headlines from outlets across the political spectrum, linked to the publisher. Vugol.me doesn’t write or endorse them. How we choose them · All election news
LabVugol Vector & Vugol Attention
Vugol Attention 8 Vugol Vector R · Held
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Vector
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Ultra Pro plans.
Vugol Tensor
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+14.0. Four times in five the result lands between R+4.6 and R+23.4; nine in ten between R+1.9 and R+26.0. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 3%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Desk data: daily telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Sources
- Roster, official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Vugol Attention inputs, Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results, individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models attention-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 c5efc23bcb1d · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
The four Vugol signals, side by side
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
- Vugol Vector
- Our call for every race if today’s polls hold. A snapshot, not a win probability or a vote share.
- Vugol Tensor
- How sure we are: ranges and chamber-control odds around the Vector, built from past polling error. An experiment about uncertainty, not a better guess.
- Vugol Attention
- How much news and online noise a race gets, 0 to 100. It measures noise, not support: a high score says nothing about who is ahead.
- Vugol Pulse
- Our daily thumbs-up or thumbs-down question for readers. Anyone can answer, so it describes our readers, not the public. It is not a vote and never enters a poll average or any other signal.