General election · 2 on file, ballot not yet verified · Incumbent running
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on the Vugol Vector model — a snapshot of today, not a probability.
No polls on file for this race. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated yesterday. Sources · What is validated
ExperimentalNews attention 35/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated yesterday. How it works
From FEC filings and public records. Filing with the FEC does not put someone on the ballot; we are checking each state’s certified candidate list and will mark who is on the November ballot.
Verified = published by the pollster that conducted it, with a public source we link to.
No verified poll has been published for this race. The Vugol Vector call from our model is below — it is not a poll.
No polls on file for this race yet. See latest polls across every race.
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Vugol Me model signals, not polls. Verified polling is in the Polls section above.
Vugol Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Proprietary ensemble model · a call, not a probability · model confidence: medium
The breakdown of this call (the model's multi-signal input matrix, input by input) is on Team plans.
How far this call can miss · a range, not a prediction · no verified poll here, so the range is wider and untested
Centre R+17.0. Four times in five the result lands between R+7.6 and R+26.4; nine in ten between R+4.9 and R+29.1. Chance the Democrat finishes ahead: 1%.
Polls have missed by about four points in a typical race and they miss together. How Tensor works →
Per-source daily series, CSV export and the Vugol Vector breakdown · paid plans
Vugol Vector band: R · Held. Have a say in the Vugol race poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.
They answer different questions and are kept apart. Full method: Methodology.
