U.S. Senate · Alabama · 2026
General election · 2 on the November ballot · Open seat (no incumbent)
Model rating Leans Republican (Held) on our experimental model — not a poll or a forecast.
1 poll on file from pollsters we have not verified yet — shown below, not averaged. Model inputs: 3 of 7, updated today. Sources · What is validated
News attention 38/100 — how much coverage the race gets, not who is winning. Updated 3 days ago. How it works
On the November ballot (2)
From reported primary results, checked 2026-09-30. Each state certifies its own ballot; see the source below.
Ran in the primary (8)
Lost a primary or runoff for this seat — not on the November ballot.
Ballot source: https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001290
Latest verified field polling
Only checksummed releases from verified (Tier V) pollsters appear here.
No verified poll has been published for this race. Vector, our experimental model rating, is below — it is not a poll.
Polling average
1 poll on file for this race, all from quarantined (U-tier) pollsters — visible below, not yet averaged.
Campaign money (FEC)
Candidate committee totals for the cycle from the Federal Election Commission (public domain), as of each committee's latest report.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakarai Larriett | $154,254 | $151,838 | $2,416 | 2026-06-30 |
| Everett W Wess | $80,555 | $62,272 | $18,283 | 2026-06-30 |
| Felix Barry Moore | $3,787,330 | $3,284,673 | $627,788 | 2026-06-30 |
| Jared Hudson | $1,920,539 | $1,806,650 | $113,889 | 2026-06-30 |
| Kyle Sweetser | $166,056 | $163,372 | $2,684 | 2026-06-30 |
| Mark Shannon Wheeler II | $17,374 | $16,808 | $566 | 2026-04-29 |
| Matthew Seth Burton | $74,362 | $74,362 | $0 | 2026-06-04 |
| Morgan W. W. Murphy | $0 | $0 | $0 | 2026-09-30 |
| Rodney Walker | $2,015,963 | $2,015,963 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
| Steven T Marshall | $1,298,351 | $1,298,351 | $0 | 2026-06-30 |
Results
Vote counts as reported by the state; transcribed from the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), which cites the state's official results.
Democratic primary runoff
| Everett Wess won | 49,396 | 54.6% |
| Dakarai Larriett | 41,065 | 45.4% |
Republican primary runoff
| Barry Moore won | 173,674 | 55.8% |
| Jared Hudson | 137,545 | 44.2% |
Democratic primary
| Everett Wess advanced | 132,373 | 39.8% |
| Dakarai Larriett advanced | 96,307 | 28.9% |
| Mark S. Wheeler II | 57,947 | 17.4% |
| Kyle Sweetser | 46,286 | 13.9% |
Republican primary · official results
| Barry Moore advanced | 189,067 | 39.2% |
| Jared Hudson advanced | 123,672 | 25.6% |
| Steve Marshall | 118,361 | 24.5% |
| Rodney Walker | 19,697 | 4.1% |
| Seth Burton | 15,142 | 3.1% |
| Dale Shelton Deas Jr. | 10,117 | 2.1% |
| Morgan Murphy (withdrawn) | 6,485 | 1.3% |
Source: Wikipedia article revision (CC BY-SA 4.0), retrieved 2026-09-30 · parser wiki-race-1.0.0
Key dates
Official federal election dates for this state from the FEC. Registration deadlines and early voting: see the state election office.
- 2026-05-19 — Primary election: U.S. Senate
- 2026-06-16 — Runoff: U.S. Senate
- 2026-11-03 — General election: U.S. Senate
Source: FEC election dates (public domain).
Primary and hypothetical polls (19)
Kept on file, never averaged into this race. Polls listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each linked to the pollster's own release.
- Republican primary runoff · co/efficient (partisan) · 2026-06-03–2026-06-04 · n=600 · Barry Moore (R) 46%, Jared Hudson (R) 37% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Strategy Management · 2026-05-29–2026-06-04 · n=1,300 · Jared Hudson (R) 42%, Barry Moore (R) 37% · release
- Republican primary runoff · The Alabama Poll · 2026-05-28–2026-05-28 · n=600 · Jared Hudson (R) 49%, Barry Moore (R) 39% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-05-21–2026-05-22 · n=722 · Jared Hudson (R) 41%, Barry Moore (R) 40% · release
- Republican primary runoff · Pulse Decision Science (partisan) · 2026-05-17–2026-05-18 · n=518 · Barry Moore (R) 53%, Jared Hudson (R) 36% · release
- Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-05-05–2026-05-07 · n=589 · Barry Moore (R) 23%, Jared Hudson (R) 20%, Steve Marshall (R) 16%, Rodney Walker (R) 1%, Morgan Murphy (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Cygnal (partisan) · 2026-04-29–2026-04-30 · n=500 · Barry Moore (R) 23%, Jared Hudson (R) 19%, Steve Marshall (R) 14% · release
- Republican primary · Tarrance Group (partisan) · 2026-04-11–2026-04-14 · n=500 · Barry Moore (R) 28%, Steve Marshall (R) 27%, Jared Hudson (R) 24% · release
- Republican primary · Peak Insights (partisan) · 2026-04-11–2026-04-13 · n=500 · Barry Moore (R) 34%, Steve Marshall (R) 16%, Jared Hudson (R) 12%, Rodney Walker (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · American Pulse Research (partisan) · 2026-03-30–2026-04-01 · n=505 · Barry Moore (R) 26%, Steve Marshall (R) 21%, Jared Hudson (R) 14% · release
- Republican primary · The Alabama Poll · 2026-03-22–2026-03-24 · n=600 · Barry Moore (R) 23%, Steve Marshall (R) 21%, Jared Hudson (R) 19%, Rodney Walker (R) 3% · release
- Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-03-02–2026-03-04 · n=692 · Barry Moore (R) 22%, Steve Marshall (R) 16%, Jared Hudson (R) 12%, Rodney Walker (R) 1%, Morgan Murphy (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · The Alabama Poll · 2026-02-01–2026-02-04 · n=500 · Steve Marshall (R) 26%, Barry Moore (R) 17%, Jared Hudson (R) 8%, Rodney Walker (R) 4%, Morgan Murphy (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2026-01-16–2026-01-19 · n=775 · Steve Marshall (R) 26%, Barry Moore (R) 13%, Jared Hudson (R) 10%, Rodney Walker (R) 2%, Morgan Murphy (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · The Alabama Poll · 2025-12-15–2025-12-15 · n=600 · Steve Marshall (R) 30%, Barry Moore (R) 12%, Jared Hudson (R) 8%, Rodney Walker (R) 3%, Morgan Murphy (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · Quantus Insights (partisan) · 2025-10-13–2025-10-14 · n=1,050 · Jared Hudson (R) 27%, Steve Marshall (R) 24%, Barry Moore (R) 9%, Rodney Walker (R) 2%, Morgan Murphy (R) 2% · release
- Republican primary · The Alabama Poll · 2025-08-24–2025-08-26 · n=600 · Steve Marshall (R) 37%, Barry Moore (R) 16%, Jared Hudson (R) 7%, Rodney Walker (R) 1% · release
- Republican primary · McLaughlin & Associates (partisan) · 2025-07-14–2025-07-17 · n=600 · Steve Marshall (R) 35%, Barry Moore (R) 12%, Jared Hudson (R) 9% · release
- Republican primary · Remington Research Group (partisan) · 2025-05-12–2025-05-13 · n=505 · Steve Marshall (R) 28%, Caroleene Dobson 13%, Barry Moore (R) 10% · release
Signals (experimental)
Attention 38 Vector R · Held
Vugol Me Attention (attention intensity)
Attention intensity index 0–100 · not a poll · normalized nightly
Vugol Me Vector (experimental)
Directional rating without probability · experimental · model confidence: medium
Daily precision telemetry
Per-source daily series, CSV export and Vector inputs · paid plans
Sources
- Roster — official filings; fundraising from FEC datapoints where on file (https://api.open.fec.gov/).
- Attention inputs — Wikipedia pageviews (https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/) and GDELT news volume and tone (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
- Polls and results — individual polls and primary results listed on the Wikipedia election article (CC BY-SA 4.0), each poll linked to the pollster's release; money and election dates from the FEC (public domain). How rows are checked.
- Models pulse-1.0.0 · vector-1.1.0 · attention inputs SHA-256 7e911d2cc424 · methodology · license CC BY 4.0 (data license).
Band: R · Held (experimental). Have a say in the community poll; it is open to signed-in voters and never feeds these numbers.