races 807 cycles 14
shift sd 5.7
pooled slope of resid on shift: -0.312 (intercept -0.85)
cluster-bootstrap 95% CI for slope: [-0.395, -0.246]
1998 28 slope -0.30
2000 63 slope -0.34
2002 55 slope -0.19
2004 71 slope -0.44
2006 72 slope -0.26
2008 77 slope -0.56
2010 75 slope -0.23
2012 68 slope -0.26
2014 64 slope -0.33
2016 64 slope -0.44
2018 46 slope -0.48
2020 49 slope -0.38
2022 39 slope -0.70
2024 36 slope -0.03
LOCO MAE late-avg 4.253  late-avg+momentum 4.098