model  MAE_diff_vs_plain(neg=better)  ci2.5  ci97.5  cycles_better  cycles
         M1 constant shift (global bias)                          0.006 -0.259   0.281              6      12
                M2 shift + WH-party term                          0.123 -0.156   0.424              6      12
                 M3 shrink to state lean                         -0.112 -0.251   0.034             10      12
              M4 shrink + intercept + WH                          0.001 -0.336   0.358              8      12
M5 persistence (half of last cycle bias)                          0.092 -0.159   0.331              4      11