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Live data · Vugol Attention model attention-1.0.0 · Vugol Vector vector-1.1.0 · Vugol Tensor tensor-1.0.0 · Brief model brief-1.0.0

Daily digest: if the election were held today

Every morning: who would control the Senate, House and governorships, what moved since yesterday, new verified polls and your state. Free.

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Candidates, verified polls and race ratings, each number with its source. Published aggregates are reproducible from a versioned model and a stored input snapshot; community responses never enter them. No sponsorships, no paid ratings, no advertising.

Vugol Attention, the Vugol Vector and the Vugol Tensor are Vugol Me signals, not polls. Vugol Pulse is our own daily question and stays out of every average.

Candidates, verified polls and race ratings, each number with its source. Published aggregates are reproducible from a versioned model and a stored input snapshot; community responses never enter them. No sponsorships, no paid ratings, no advertising.Vugol Attention, the Vugol Vector and the Vugol Tensor are Vugol Me signals, not polls. Vugol Pulse is our own daily question and stays out of every average.
Support: hello@vugol.me© 2026 Vugol.Me. All rights reserved.
  1. Generic ballot · poll average

    Voters favor Democrats for Congress by 9.1 points

    50.9% Democratic, 41.8% Republican · average of 12 pollsters' latest polls · as of 2026-10-31
    See every race →If today were Election Day →
    D+9.1generic ballot
  2. Senate race to watchKansas

    The Kansas Senate race draws the most attention

    Vugol Attention 65 of 100 · leans Democratic (tilting)
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    65attention
  3. Governor's race to watchGU

    The GU Governor race draws the most attention

    Vugol Attention 66 of 100 · leans Democratic (held)
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    66attention
  4. If held today · Vugol Vector · House

    Democrats would control the House: D 241, R 194

    32 close calls · range D 229–261, R 174–206 · verified polls, proprietary model elsewhere
    See every race →If today were Election Day →
  5. If held today · Vugol Vector · Governor

    Democrats would hold most governorships: D 28, R 22

    1 close call · range D 28–29, R 21–22 · verified polls, proprietary model elsewhere
    See every race →If today were Election Day →
  6. Toss-upTexas

    The Texas Attorney General race rates a toss-up

    Vugol Vector toss-up, called today by the slightest edge · news attention 71 of 100
    Read the race →If today were Election Day →
    71attention
Headlines refresh every 3 hours · next 18:00 UTC
  • 35 2026 U.S. Senate races tracked
  • 440 2026 U.S. House races tracked
  • 39 2026 governor's races
  • 403 statewide candidates
  • 2,188 counties' races on record
  • 173,557 candidates profiled, federal to local · Claim yours
35 2026 U.S. Senate races tracked

Candidate depth. Verified polling. Reproducible models. One site. ✦ Ask me anything

or

  • 173,557candidate profilesRecord, money and sources, from Senate to school board
  • 35 Senate440 House39 Governors6162026 races trackedHouse includes 5 non-voting delegate seats; governors include 3 territories
  • PRNYHR2,270verified pollsOnly from pollsters we have checked
  • Publishedinputs, versions and the Tensor paperWhat you can re-check, and what stays ours

Every number links to its source. How to read a race ?

Press access (illustration)

Vugol Pulse · today’s question · not a scientific poll

Should the White House be allowed to bar specific news outlets from its press events?

Answering confirms you’re 18 or older. Results show after you answer.

Election Day 2024 vs. nowSince you last voted
  • Regular4.27
    Gas, gallon$3.07 → $4.27▲
  • Milk, gallon$4.14 → $4.11▼
  • Eggs, dozen$3.65 → $2.27▼
  • Bread, pound$1.92 → $1.83▼
All 32 numbers →Photo credits
Today’s Vugol Vector

If the election were held today

Full breakdown
U.S. SenateD 52·R 48Democrats would control the U.S. Senate2 close calls · range D 52–54, R 46–48U.S. House
U.S. House seat chart by race ratingHouse seats by race rating: Democrats favored in 229 (152 anchored, 45 held, 32 tilting), 32 toss-ups, Republicans favored in 174 (75 anchored, 51 held, 48 tilting), 0 unrated. 218 seats make a majority.218for majority
229 D32 toss-up174 R
Each dot a seat, by race rating
D 241·R 194Democrats would control the U.S. House32 close calls · range D 229–261, R 174–206
GovernorsAlaska: DemocraticMaine: DemocraticVermont: DemocraticNew Hampshire: RepublicanWashington: DemocraticIdaho: RepublicanMontana: RepublicanNorth Dakota: RepublicanMinnesota: DemocraticIllinois: DemocraticWisconsin: DemocraticMichigan: DemocraticNew York: DemocraticMassachusetts: DemocraticOregon: DemocraticNevada: DemocraticWyoming: RepublicanSouth Dakota: RepublicanIowa: DemocraticIndiana: RepublicanOhio: DemocraticPennsylvania: DemocraticNew Jersey: DemocraticConnecticut: DemocraticRhode Island: DemocraticCalifornia: DemocraticUtah: RepublicanColorado: DemocraticNebraska: RepublicanMissouri: RepublicanKentucky: DemocraticWest Virginia: RepublicanVirginia: DemocraticMaryland: DemocraticDelaware: DemocraticArizona: DemocraticNew Mexico: DemocraticKansas: RepublicanArkansas: RepublicanTennessee: RepublicanNorth Carolina: DemocraticSouth Carolina: RepublicanOklahoma: RepublicanLouisiana: RepublicanMississippi: RepublicanAlabama: RepublicanGeorgia: RepublicanHawaii: DemocraticTexas: RepublicanFlorida: RepublicanD 28·R 22Democrats would hold most governorships1 close call · range D 28–29, R 21–22

The Vugol Vector calls every 2026 race for the side ahead today: verified polling where it exists, otherwise our proprietary ensemble model. Close calls are toss-ups decided by the slightest edge. A snapshot of today, not a probability.

◀ DEMOCRATIC SIDEREPUBLICAN SIDE ▶HOUSE241194SENATE5248GOVERNORS2822
The call

Vugol Vector

Who is ahead in every race if the vote were held today: verified polls where they exist, our model where they do not.

Full breakdown →
President’s approvalDonald Trump
50
37.0% approve 60.4% disapproveUnderwater by 23.4 points
3,979,843ballots already cast in Florida · early vote, as of 2026-10-31
  • 39%Democrats1,550,149
  • 40%Republicans1,595,417
  • 21%Other / none834,277

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means →
2,612,249ballots already cast in North Carolina · early vote, as of 2026-10-31
  • 39%Democrats1,010,362
  • 26%Republicans679,769
  • 35%Other / none922,118

By registered party, not by how they voted.

119% of 2022’s whole early vote (2,198,550)

What this means →
276,438ballots already cast in Pennsylvania · early vote, as of 2026-10-13
  • 72%Democrats198,421
  • 20%Republicans55,830
  • 8%Other / none22,187

By registered party, not by how they voted.

What this means →

What changed

  • Oct 29PollSource ↗Patinkin Research Strategies poll in South Carolina Senate: Annie Andrews (D) 48%, Darline Graham (R) 43%
  • Oct 29Verified pollSource ↗New York Times/Siena University poll in Nebraska Governor: Jim Pillen (R) 53%, Lynne Walz (D) 40%
  • Oct 29PollSource ↗Hart Research Associates poll in Louisiana Senate: Jamie Davis (D) 45%, Julia Letlow (R) 45%
  • Oct 31NewsTrump and GOP Close Midterms With Ugly Personal Attacks (New York Times)
  • Oct 31NewsTroubling discovery on state voter rolls sparks action days before midterms: ‘Should have been fixed’ (Fox News)
The 2026 map

Where every race leans

Full races index
35 states with a race · select a state for its races
Alaska: Alaska Senate, Toss-up, Vugol Attention 58 of 100AKAtt 58Maine: Maine Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 29 of 100MEAtt 29Vermont: No senate race in 2026VTNew Hampshire: New Hampshire Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 3 of 100NHAtt 3Washington: No senate race in 2026WAIdaho: Idaho Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 15 of 100IDAtt 15Montana: Montana Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 51 of 100MTAtt 51North Dakota: No senate race in 2026NDMinnesota: Minnesota Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 57 of 100MNAtt 57Illinois: Illinois Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 1 of 100ILAtt 1Wisconsin: No senate race in 2026WIMichigan: Michigan Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 57 of 100MIAtt 57New York: No senate race in 2026NYMassachusetts: Massachusetts Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 34 of 100MAAtt 34Oregon: Oregon Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 45 of 100ORAtt 45Nevada: No senate race in 2026NVWyoming: Wyoming Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 59 of 100WYAtt 59South Dakota: South Dakota Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 2 of 100SDAtt 2Iowa: Iowa Senate, Toss-up, Vugol Attention 63 of 100IAAtt 63Indiana: No senate race in 2026INOhio: Ohio Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 2 of 100OHAtt 2Pennsylvania: No senate race in 2026PANew Jersey: New Jersey Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 62 of 100NJAtt 62Connecticut: No senate race in 2026CTRhode Island: Rhode Island Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 15 of 100RIAtt 15California: No senate race in 2026CAUtah: No senate race in 2026UTColorado: Colorado Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 29 of 100COAtt 29Nebraska: Nebraska Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 8 of 100NEAtt 8Missouri: No senate race in 2026MOKentucky: Kentucky Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 57 of 100KYAtt 57West Virginia: West Virginia Senate, R · Anchored, Vugol Attention 57 of 100WVAtt 57Virginia: Virginia Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 3 of 100VAAtt 3Maryland: No senate race in 2026MDDelaware: Delaware Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 31 of 100DEAtt 31Arizona: No senate race in 2026AZNew Mexico: New Mexico Senate, D · Anchored, Vugol Attention 3 of 100NMAtt 3Kansas: Kansas Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 65 of 100KSAtt 65Arkansas: Arkansas Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 64 of 100ARAtt 64Tennessee: Tennessee Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 63 of 100TNAtt 63North Carolina: North Carolina Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 59 of 100NCAtt 59South Carolina: South Carolina Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 61 of 100SCAtt 61District of Columbia: No senate race in 2026DCOklahoma: Oklahoma Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 4 of 100OKAtt 4Louisiana: Louisiana Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 58 of 100LAAtt 58Mississippi: Mississippi Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 64 of 100MSAtt 64Alabama: Alabama Senate, R · Held, Vugol Attention 10 of 100ALAtt 10Georgia: Georgia Senate, D · Held, Vugol Attention 13 of 100GAAtt 13Hawaii: No senate race in 2026HITexas: Texas Senate, D · Tilting, Vugol Attention 62 of 100TXAtt 62Florida: Florida Senate, R · Tilting, Vugol Attention 35 of 100FLAtt 35
Democratic leanRepublican lean Purple = toss-up · grey = not yet rated · Att = Vugol Attention score (0–100), not support

Colored by the Vugol Vector: the verified polling average where one exists, otherwise our proprietary model. A snapshot of today, not a probability. What the Vugol Vector is

VUGOL TENSORchance of controlSenate 75% DHouse 98% DGovernors 89% D
SenateHouseGovernors
HOW SUREtypical miss~4 pts a raceshared across races · 14 cycles, 1998–2024
RANGES80% and 90%for every raceno tilt · tensor-1.0.0
The doubt

Vugol Tensor

How far that call can miss: ranges for every race and the chance each side controls each chamber. No partisan tilt, and a modelled signal, not a poll.

See the ranges →If it comes true: who would lead →
✦
Search candidates by name →

Tracking 35 U.S. Senate, 440 U.S. House and 39 governor races in 2026. Every poll we publish links to its source.

Loudest right now

Most-watched races

All 616 races
ORU.S. HouseD · TiltingOregon's 5th DistrictOR-05 · OregonVugol VectorVecD 42 · TiltingTenD 92%Att74News attention 74/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
NYU.S. HouseD · TiltingNew York's 19th DistrictNY-19 · New YorkVugol VectorVecD 37 · TiltingTenD 90%Att73News attention 73/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
NVU.S. HouseD · HeldNevada's 1st DistrictNV-01 · NevadaVugol VectorVecD 50 · HeldTenD 96%Att72News attention 72/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
AZStatewideD · TiltingArizona Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 23 · TiltingTenD 79%Att72News attention 72/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
MNStatewideD · HeldMinnesota Secretary of StateStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 51 · HeldTenD 96%Att72News attention 72/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
TXStatewideToss-upTexas Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecR 8 · OpenTenR 61%Att71News attention 71/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
From outlets across the spectrum

In the news

All election news
NationalNear me (ZIP)My races
  • New York TimesTrump and GOP Close Midterms With Ugly Personal AttacksOct 31
  • Fox NewsTroubling discovery on state voter rolls sparks action days before midterms: ‘Should have been fixed’Oct 31Susan M. CollinsMaine Senate
  • Wall Street JournalWatch polling editor Aaron Zitner break down the WSJ’s final poll before the midtermsOct 30
  • New York TimesAs Midterms Near, Top Law Firms That Capitulated to Trump Are on the SidelinesOct 31
  • Fox NewsDems' dire warnings about threats to democracy face an uncomfortable reckoning after Alaska election reportOct 31Dan SullivanAlaska Senate
  • NewsNationRoad to the Midterms: Data centers on the ballotOct 30
Presidential approval · our average37.0% approve60.4% disapprove
YouGov36%61%
Emerson College37%57%
Ipsos32%66%
Verasight45%55%
Morning Consult41%56%
CNN/SSRS32%67%
Quinnipiac University34%61%
Harris unverified, not averaged39%59%
Prolific unverified, not averaged36%63%
Clarity Campaign Labs unverified, not averaged42%56%
Average of 7 pollsters · net −23.4 · as of 2026-10-31
Newest first

Latest polls

All polls
South Carolina Senate · Patinkin Research StrategiesAnnie Andrews (D) 48%43% Darline Graham (R)fielded 10-27–2026-10-29 · n=500 · ±4.4ppNebraska Governor · New York Times/Siena University · verifiedJim Pillen (R) 53%40% Lynne Walz (D)fielded 10-23–2026-10-29 · n=809 · ±3.4ppLouisiana Senate · Hart Research AssociatesJamie Davis (D) 45%45% Julia Letlow (R)fielded 10-28–2026-10-29 · n=502 · ±4.4ppNebraska Senate · New York Times/Siena University · verifiedPete Ricketts (R) 49%43% Dan Osborn (I)fielded 10-23–2026-10-29 · n=809 · ±3.4pp
Fresh numbers

Recently updated

See all
MIU.S. HouseD · AnchoredMichigan's 12th DistrictMI-12 · MichiganVugol VectorVecD 100 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att69News attention 69/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
COStatewideD · AnchoredColorado Attorney GeneralStatewide raceVugol VectorVecD 71 · AnchoredTenD >99%Att68News attention 68/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll
AKU.S. HouseR · AnchoredAlaska At-Large House seatAK-AL · AlaskaVerified pollsVecR 27 · AnchoredTenR >99%Att68News attention 68/100Details → · updated 2026-10-31 Vugol Pulse poll

Daily digest: if the election were held today

Every morning: who would control the Senate, House and governorships, what moved since yesterday, new verified polls and your state. Free.

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What voters here are saying

Vugol race polls, open to anyone, not scientific, and never used in our numbers.

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